Verification of tracks made of Wilfred

December 21, 2020

I made four tracks of Tropical Storm Wilfred, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made no more tracks after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were two instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Originally the projected location was considerably too far east.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 14, 18Z thru September 21, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the four tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between September 16, 18Z and September 23, 18Z. Average was September 19, 09Z and median was September 18, 12Z.

In the six cases (4 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 2 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 4. Average and median were Category 0.

In the four tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant), dissipation times ranged between September 20, 06Z and October 7, 12Z. Average was September 28, 06Z and median was September 27, 15Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 36 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 122 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 148 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 240 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 874 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 1091 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 621 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 811 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme