2021 hurricane season predictions

 

2021 Atlantic hurricane season

named storms - hurricanes - major hurricanes

Final predictions as of June 11, 2021

yes, had to revise after June 1, since Disqus decided to mark dogebane's prediction as suspect... and I forgot to check the moderation panel >_<

Deadline for new and revised predictions is May 31st, 2021 at 23:59 UTC

italics indicates midpoint of a range


Afrim Alimeti 37-17-7
Alan Snyder's Hurricane and Severe Weather Central 18-9.5-4
Alexander Emmett 20-10-5
Andre Brooks 16-8-5
Athena 19-8-6
Barefootontherocks 19-7-4
bear90ofs 27-12-6
Belleinfla 23-9-5
bigwes6844 24-12-6
climateNHBSH 18-8-4
CrazyForStormsGuy 20-12-5
Dirk 26-15-5
Dbz101 16-10-4
dogebane 18-7-5
elioe 18-10-6
GatorWX 19-9-4
Gr8lakebreeze 18-7-3
HawaiiBrian 19-11-5
HurricaneFan 17-8-4
hurricane_guineapig 22-11-6
HurricaneHunt 17-6-3
HurricaneWatch247 16-9-3
Jon Tay-catch 22-10-4
Jordan Martirossian 17.5-9.5-5
Joseph Sturch 20-8-4
JRock74 19-10-4
Keytom 26-14-4
Lurkindanger 18-9-3
Michael Anderson 22-10-5
Mike 22-15-8
MissMolly'sMom 21-9-3
Mr.Tornadochase 19-11-5
Native Son 23-12-7
NotSpa☈ta (Alex) 16-8-3
ParFormX 24-14-5
PartyLikeSpock 17-9-4
Sadie La Rue 18-10-4
Samuel Lobdell 20-10-4
Seattleite 20-9-4
Skyepony 21-17-4
SRQfl 23-8-5
Stella 23-12-4
Sue DiMeglio Russell Kaufman 20-10-5
SunnyDaysFl 21-10-5
Telford Holmes>>> Taco 15-6-3
TornadoFan 21-9-4
TropicWeather 19-8.5-3
TybeeTime - SavannahStorm 18-10-5
Uziel Chaim Snyder 16-8-3
Vanessa Hall 22-14-9
Vintage Cars 20-9-5
Weatherfan1013 19-7-4

The total error will be calculated as

sqrt( (E_ns)^2 / 12.1 + (E_hu)^2 / 6.4 + (E_mh)^2 / 2.7 )

i.e. just like in 2020.

Below are all the predictions listed in graphic form - the graphic expands a lot




Comments

  1. Native SonMarch 9, 2021 at 8:15 PM

    Hi, here is my prediction for the 2021 Season, 23-12-7. Two to Three Cat 5's

    ReplyDelete
  2. DirkMay 21, 2021 at 4:32 AM

    Hi elioe, i know i`m late but here is my prediction of this season ; 26-15-5
    Thanks for making the effort again this year. See you on YCC.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Vanessa HallMay 21, 2021 at 5:13 AM

    22/14/9

    ReplyDelete
  4. UnknownMay 22, 2021 at 5:29 AM

    Thanks for keeping up with all these! 21/17/4 ~Skyepony

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Verification of tracks made of Jimena

Image
I made five tracks of Tropical Storm Jimena, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone for the first time. I made three more tracks after the first cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of the first cyclogenesis, there were fourteen instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available July 25, 12Z thru August 8, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the five tracks (made before operationally recognized initial cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between July 29, 00Z and August 1, 00Z. Average was July 31, 05Z and median wa
Read more

2023 hurricane season predictions

Image
  2023 Atlantic hurricane season nameable storms - hurricanes - major hurricanes Final predictions as of June 1st, 2023 Deadline for new and revised predictions was May 31st, 2023 at 23:59 UTC italics indicates midpoint of a range --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Arkenar (crewed) 15.5-7-2 (@avplutoenjoyer) Athena 13-6-3 BaltimoreBrian 16-9-4 Blade 16-8-3 (@winterice) DOM-O 13-6-2 (@BigOlGoofyWorld) Duane A. Linn (Be Mindful) 22-7-5 (@ThePuritanSage) elioe 11-7-2 (@elioeFIN) GatorWX 12-5-2 Harold Carr 12-6-2 (@HaroldCarr10) heartistrueblue 11-7-2 (@NotKaren_68) Jason Ludwig 8-3-1 (@JasonLud1198) jem 8-4-2 (@jemtrails) John Marschand 8-3-1 (@InMyBAGel) Joseph Sturch 13-7-4 justbooket 11-5-1 (@justbooket) JustWatchingSocietyFall 18-5-2 (@AnAmerican2773) Lemuel Taylor 15-7-3 (@LemTay1248) Liam 13-5-2 (@cleanse__) LimWx (Off Season from Hurricanes) 15-6.5-3 (@LimWeather) Matt Schiess 16-9-3 (@wayfastwxnerd) Mic
Read more

2024 hurricane season predictions

  2024 Atlantic hurricane season nameable storms - hurricanes - major hurricanes Predictions as of April 14th, 2024 Deadline for new and revised predictions is May 31st, 2024 at 23:59 UTC Anyone wishing to participate can do so on X-Twitter or on Facebook . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Brian 29-17-10 (@BrianATL82) debbie156-MeidasMighty 32-21-4 (@debbie156) DOM-O 17-9-4 (@BigOlGoofyWorld) Eddie 40-24-4 (@TheIronHorse7) elioe 24-14-8 (@elioeFIN) Hurricane Chaser Chase 23-11-6 (@hurricane_chase) Jay Norris 32-19-7 Joseph Sturch 23-8-4 justbooket 22-9-5 (@justbooket) JustWatchingSocietyFall 27-14-6 (@AnAmerican2773) Michael Anderson 26-12-7 (@MAnderson003) Papa Cole 23-10-5 (@papa_cole45) Stanley Garstka 18-9-5 (@Stracker234) taylor matthews 24-13-6 (@taylormatt66094) TornadoFan 28-13-6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- T he total error will be calc
Read more