Verification of Atlantic ghost storm tracks of August-October 2020
I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in Atlantic (north of
equator and west of Greenwich) 58 times in August thru October of 2020.
Tracks were made of 21 systems.
In the calculations, crossover into east of Greenwich meridian as a (sub)tropical cyclone
is considered equal to dissipation.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there was 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there was 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 9 false detection.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 11 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 12 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 9 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 11 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 11 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 10 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 12 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 11 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 13 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 14 false detections.
At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 19 false detections.
At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 29 false detections.
At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 27 false detections.
At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 29 false detections.
Ghost storm L#47
This originally broad signal became Invest 94L, which didn't develop. These tracks began in July.
August 2, 12Z:
Ghost storm L#48
This is best identifiable with the trough, which is located near 30N
40W in the following synoptic chart. These tracks began in July.
August 1, 06Z:
August 2, 12Z:
Ghost storm L#52
These could be identified with several extratropical lows, which actually were in the right area at right time.
August 4, 18Z:
Ghost storm L#53
This is identifiable with a tropical wave, stretching along 30W in the following synoptic chart.
August 6, 12Z:
August 6, 18Z:
August 20, 06Z:
Ghost storm L#54
This is identifiable with a tropical wave, located in and north of Venezuela in the following synoptic chart.
August 9, 06Z:
August 10, 12Z:
August 27, 06Z:
System L#55
System L#56
System L#57
System L#58
System L#59
Ghost storm L#60
This is best identifiable with a weak low, located east of Georgia in the following synoptic chart.
August 24, 06Z:
August 27, 06Z:
August 29, 06Z:
August 30, 06Z:
Ghost storm L#61
This lone track could, to some extent, be identified with Paulette, but I chose not to.
August 27, 06Z:
System L#62
System L#63
System L#64
System L#65
System L#66
System L#67
Ghost storm L#68
September 3, 06Z:
Ghost storm L#69
This is identifiable with a tropical wave, located east of Lesser Antilles in the following synoptic chart.
September 12, 06Z:
System L#70
Ghost storm L#71
This is identifiable with absolutely nothing.
September 12, 06Z:
System L#72
System L#73
Ghost storm L#74
September 16, 06Z:
September 23, 12Z:
September 24, 12Z:
System L#75
System L#76
Ghost storm L#77
This is identifiable with a tropical wave, located near 35W in the following synoptic chart.
September 24, 12Z:
September 26, 06Z:
September 27, 12Z:
September 30, 12Z:
October 1, 06Z:
October 8, 06Z:
October 10, 12Z:
Ghost storm L#78
This is identifiable with the 979mbar extratropical cyclone, located over England in the following synoptic chart.
September 23, 12Z:
System L#79
System L#80
Ghost storm L#81
This could be interpreted as another cyclone originating from the same trough as Zeta.
October 8, 06Z:
October 9, 12Z:
October 10, 12Z:
October 11, 18Z:
October 14, 12Z:
Ghost storm L#82
This is identifiable with nothing.
October 9, 12Z:
Ghost storm L#83
This is identifiable with an extratropical low, located over Ireland in the following synoptic chart.
October 11, 18Z:
October 18, 12Z:
System L#84
System L#85
Ghost storm L#86
This signal was originally very separate, but eventually it came to represent the (false) scenario, that center of Eta would dissipate overland in Central America, and a new cyclone would form in NW Caribbean.
October 14, 12Z:
October 15, 06Z:
October 16, 12Z:
October 18, 12Z:
October 22, 12Z:
October 24, 12Z:
October 27, 00Z:
October 28, 06Z:
October 31, 06Z:
System L#87
System L#88
Ghost storm L#89
This is too ambiguous case to be identified with anything. It could be either the trough crossing 20N east of 40W... or it could have detached from the front northwest of it.
October 28, 06Z:
October 30, 12Z:
System L#90
Ghost storm L#91
This isn't identifiable at all.
October 30, 12Z:
Ghost storm L#92
This is best identifiable with the 1006mbar low west of Brittany in this synoptic chart. These tracks continued in November.
October 31, 06Z:
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