Verification of tracks made of Iselle

I made one track of Tropical Storm Iselle, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made three more tracks after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were eight instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 24, 12Z thru August 30, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the one track (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), range, average and median of formation times was August 26, 06Z.

In the ten cases (2 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 8 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and  Category 1. Average was Category -1.50 and median was Category -2.

In the four tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration), dissipation times ranged between August 29, 12Z and August 31, 12Z. Average was August 30, 19Z and median was August 31, 03Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 61 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 215 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 197 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 79 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 239 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

August 24, 06Z:

August 27, 06Z:

August 29, 06Z:

August 30, 06Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

August 6, 12Z
August 6, 18Z
August 9, 06Z
August 10, 12Z
August 12, 12Z

August 15, 06Z
August 18, 12Z
August 20, 06Z