Verification of tracks made of Karina

January 03, 2021

I made six tracks of Tropical Storm Karina, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made one more track after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were two instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 10, 00Z thru September 17, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the six tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between September 12, 18Z and September 18, 06Z. Average was September 15, 18Z and median was September 16, 00Z.

In the eight cases (6 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 2 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 4. Average was Category 1.25 and median was Category 1.5.

In the seven tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between September 17, 00Z and September 28, 00Z. Average was September 21, 12Z and median was September 19, 06Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 35 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 60 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 24 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 84 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 556 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 271 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 1 hit, 4 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 273 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 5 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

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