Verification of tracks made of Marie

January 04, 2021

I made eight tracks of Hurricane Marie, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made three more tracks after that point. Within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were no instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Detection rate was therefore excellent, and so was intensity prediction.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 26, 18Z thru October 7, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the eight tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between September 28, 18Z and October 2, 18Z. Average was September 30, 12Z and median was September 30, 18Z.

In the ten cases (10 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that Category 4 would remain the peak intensity, and 0 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category 0 and Category 5. Average was Category 3.20 and median was Category 4.

In the eleven tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between October 4, 00Z and October 11, 00Z. Average was October 6, 15Z and median was October 6, 06Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 22 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 49 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 71 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 93 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 81 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 72 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 106 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 420 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 437 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 576 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 727 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 818 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 853 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 412 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 348 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 301 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 200 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 272 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 361 nautical miles.

Circle coloration scheme