Verification of tracks made of Norbert

January 06, 2021

I made five tracks of Tropical Storm Norbert, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made seven more tracks after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were five instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available October 2, 18Z thru October 15, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the five tracks (made before operationally recognized first cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between September 28, 06Z and October 7, 12Z. Average was October 3, 20Z and median was October 5, 00Z.

In the twelve cases (7 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 5 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 4. Average was Category 0.67 and median was Category 1.

In the twelve tracks (made before operationally recognized final degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between October 5, 12Z and October 21, 00Z. Average was October 15, 12Z and median was October 16, 00Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 58 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 94 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 176 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 4 false detections and 1 miss. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 302 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 3 hits, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 464 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 4 hits, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 509 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 2 hits, 4 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 535 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 2 hits, 5 false detections and 1 miss. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 445 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 1 hit, 4 false detections and 2 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 502 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 1 hit, 4 false detections and 2 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 515 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 454 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 1 hit, 3 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 650 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 804 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 927 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 641 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 572 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

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