Verification of tracks made of Odalys

January 06, 2021

I made thirteen tracks of Tropical Storm Odalys, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made no more tracks after that point. Within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were no instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Detection rate, position accuracy, intensity accuracy... they all were very good. The predicted time of cyclogenesis was typically too early, though.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available November 1, 18Z thru November 6, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the thirteen tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between October 29, 12Z and November 4, 06Z. Average was November 1, 14Z and median was November 2, 00Z.

In the thirteen cases (13 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 0 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -1 and Category 5. Average was Category 1.31 and median was Category 1.

In the thirteen tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between November 1, 12Z and November 16, 00Z. Average was November 6, 00Z and median was November 5, 12Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 38 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 49 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 91 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 170 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 88 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 218 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 338 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 1 hit, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 241 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 244 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 353 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 387 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 700 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 647 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 4 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 641 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 4 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 432 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 5 false detections and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 411 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 350 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparison produces an average error of 382 nautical miles.

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