Verification of tracks made of Ana

I made no tracks of Tropical Storm Ana, before it was assessed as a subtropical cyclone. I made three tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 28 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available May 19, 00Z thru May 24, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

Statistics about formation time are not applicable.

In the 28 cases (0 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that (sub)tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 28 complete misses), range, average and median of peak intensity was Category -2.

In the three tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), range, average and median of dissipation time was May 24, 00Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 68 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

May 22, 12Z:

May 22, 18Z:

May 23, 12Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

May 1, 12Z
May 1, 18Z
May 2, 06Z
May 2, 12Z
May 3, 12Z

May 3, 18Z
May 4, 12Z
May 5, 12Z
May 5, 18Z
May 6, 12Z

May 7, 12Z
May 8, 12Z
May 8, 18Z
May 10, 12Z
May 10, 18Z

May 11, 12Z
May 12, 12Z
May 12, 18Z
May 13, 12Z
May 15, 06Z

May 15, 12Z
May 16, 12Z
May 17, 12Z
May 18, 12Z
May 18, 18Z

May 19, 12Z
May 20, 06Z
May 20, 12Z