Verification of Atlantic ghost storm tracks of January-May 2021
I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in Atlantic (north of
equator and west of Greenwich) 51 times in January thru May of 2021. Additionally, Gulf of Guinea cyclogeneses lead to Atlantic crossover 4 times.
Tracks were made of 16 systems.
In the calculations, crossover from Gulf of Guinea as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to formation, and crossover into East Pacific as a tropical cyclone
is considered equal to dissipation.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 false detections.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there was 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 false detections.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 5 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 5 false detections.
At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 10 false detections.
At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 13 false detections.
At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 13 false detections.
At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 6 false detections.
Ghost storm L#01
This remained an extratropical system, shown with 993 mbar near the Azores in the following synoptic chart. These tracks began in December 2020 (as L#109).
January 1, 12Z:
January 1, 18Z:
Ghost storm L#02
These are best identifiable as end of a front, near Yucatan in the following synoptic chart. These tracks began in December 2020 (as L#110).
January 1, 12Z:
January 4, 06Z:
January 4, 12Z:
January 6, 12Z:
Ghost storm L#03
This is identifiable with the 992 mbar low southeast of Canadian Maritimes in the following synoptic chart.
January 4, 12Z:
January 6, 12Z:
Ghost storm L#04
This is not identifiable due to large lead time.
January 4, 12Z:
Ghost storm L#05
This lone track is not identifiable.
January 6, 12Z:
Ghost storm L#06
This was an extratropical cyclone, shown with 980 mbar in the following synoptic chart over mid-latitude Atlantic.
January 13, 12Z:
January 14, 12Z:
Ghost storm L#07
This is best identifiable with the front, which extends to Caribbean in the following synoptic chart.
January 13, 12Z:
January 14, 12Z:
Ghost storm L#08
This was an extratropical low, with 990 mbar center just west of France in the following synoptic chart.
February 6, 12Z:
Ghost storm L#09
These are somewhat identifiable with the trough, extending NE from Leeward Islands in the following synoptic chart.
February 17, 12Z:
February 22, 18Z:
February 23, 06Z:
February 23, 12Z:
February 25, 06Z:
February 25, 12Z:
Ghost storm L#10
This is identifiable with a trough, extending along 60W in the following synoptic chart.
March 15, 12Z:
Ghost storm L#11
These are best identifiable with a trough east of Lesser Antilles in the following synoptic chart.
March 20, 18Z:
March 21, 12Z:
March 21, 18Z:
March 22, 12Z:
March 22, 18Z:
March 23, 12Z:
March 24, 12Z:
March 24, 18Z:
March 25, 12Z:
Ghost storm L#12
This is the 997 mbar low southwest of the Azores in the following synoptic chart.
April 3, 12Z:
April 5, 12Z:
April 6, 06Z:
April 7, 06Z:
April 8, 12Z:
April 9, 06Z:
April 10, 06Z:
Ghost storm L#13
This is not identifiable at all.
April 4, 06Z:
April 5, 12Z:
April 7, 06Z:
April 8, 12Z:
April 9, 06Z:
Ghost storm L#14
This is the 1006 mbar extratropical low east of the Azores in the following synoptic chart.
April 6, 06Z:
Ghost storm L#15
These tracks are unidentifiable.
April 25, 18Z:
April 26, 06Z:
April 29, 12Z:
April 29, 18Z:
April 30, 06Z:
May 2, 06Z:
May 5, 18Z:
Ghost storm G#01
All of these Gulf of Guinea tracks, which are not identifiable, crossed over prime meridian.
May 25, 12Z:
May 26, 18Z:
May 27, 12Z:
May 31, 12Z:
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