Verification of tracks made of Marty

I made one track of Tropical Storm Marty, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made no tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were five instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

Marty will be considered continuation of Grace for position error calculations - however, Grace will not be considered Marty for calculation of hits, misses and false detections.

As of this analysis, best track / tropical cyclone report positions for Marty, as well as best track positions for Grace, are available August 9, 18Z thru August 27, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the one track (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), range, average and median of formation times was August 22, 06Z.

In the six cases (1 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 5 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and  Category 0. Average was Category -1.67 and median was Category -2.

In the one track (made before operationally recognized degeneration), range, average and median of dissipation times was August 25, 12Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 55 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 79 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 86 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here is the track once again.

August 21, 18Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

August 3, 12Z
August 4, 12Z
August 7, 18Z
August 11, 18Z
August 15, 12Z