Verification of tracks made of Pamela

November 24, 2021

I made three tracks of Hurricane Pamela, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made two more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were three instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available October 7, 12Z thru October 14, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the three tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between October 8, 18Z and October 10, 12Z. Average was October 9, 20Z and median was October 10, 06Z.

In the seven cases (4 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that Category 1 would remain the peak intensity, and 3 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category 1.29 and median was Category 2.

In the five tracks (made before operationally recognized dissipation), dissipation times ranged between October 14, 00Z and October 17, 18Z. Average was October 15, 02Z and median was October 14, 12Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 55 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 112 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 121 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 341 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 284 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 252 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 236 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 264 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 470 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme