Verification of tracks made of Victor

November 20, 2021

I made two tracks of Tropical Storm Victor, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made one more track after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were five instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 27, 00Z thru October 4, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the two tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between September 28, 06Z and October 2, 00Z. Average and median was September 30, 03Z.

In the eight cases (3 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 5 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 2. Average was Category -0.88 and median was Category -2.

In the three tracks (made before operationally recognized dissipation), dissipation times ranged between October 2, 18Z and October 6, 00Z. Average was October 4, 08Z and median was October 4, 06Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 98 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 172 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 296 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 511 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 379 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 371 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 500 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 464 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme