Verification of tracks made of Wanda

I made three tracks of Tropical Storm Wanda, before it was assessed as a subtropical cyclone. I made two more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were seven instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available October 25, 00Z thru November 7, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the three tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between October 27, 12Z and October 31, 12Z. Average was October 29, 08Z and median was October 29, 00Z.

In the ten cases (3 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 7 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 0. Average was Category -1.40 and median was Category -2.

In the five tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration), dissipation times ranged between October 30, 06Z and November 5, 06Z. Average was November 2, 07Z and median was November 2, 12Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 33 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 79 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 132 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 129 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 253 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

October 25, 06Z:

October 27, 12Z:

October 30, 06Z:

November 1, 18Z:

November 3, 18Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

October 11, 18Z
October 13, 12Z
October 15, 12Z
October 17, 12Z
October 18, 18Z

October 20, 12Z
October 21, 12Z