Ranking of 2021 Atlantic hurricane season predictions
As I'm writing this, post-season analysis has advanced to the point, that any changes in seasonal totals are unlikely. The winner is clear:
Congratulations
Joseph Sturch
!!!!!
The combined error is calculated as follows:
sqrt( (E_ns)^2 / 12.1 + (E_hu)^2 / 6.4 + (E_mh)^2 / 2.7 )
sqrt( (E_ns)^2 / 12.1 + (E_hu)^2 / 6.4 + (E_mh)^2 / 2.7 )
where E_ns is error in number of nameable storms,
E_hu is error in number of hurricanes and
E_mh is error in number of of major hurricanes.
The following has the format of
ranking. / predicted named storms / predicted hurricanes / predicted major hurricanes / combined error and Disqus/Twitter handle at time of giving prediction
ranking. / predicted named storms / predicted hurricanes / predicted major hurricanes / combined error and Disqus/Twitter handle at time of giving prediction
1. / 20 / 8 / 4 / 0.48877 Joseph Sturch 97L(Ravensfan)
2. / 19 / 7 / 4 / 0.57496 Barefootontherocks
2. / 19 / 7 / 4 / 0.57496 Weatherfan1013
4. / 21 / 9 / 4 / 0.79057 TornadoFan
5. / 20 / 9 / 4 / 0.84122 Seattleite
6. / 23 / 8 / 5 / 0.92585 SRQfl
7. / 18 / 8 / 4 / 0.94871 ClimateNHBSH
8. / 19 / 9 / 4 / 0.97754 GatorWX
9. / 21 / 9 / 3 / 0.99768 MissMolly'sMom
10. / 19 / 8.5 / 3 / 1.02592 TropicWeather
11. / 20 / 9 / 5 / 1.03828 Vintage Cars
12. / 18 / 7 / 5 / 1.05554 dogebane
12. / 18 / 7 / 3 / 1.05554 Gr8lakebreeze
14. / 23 / 9 / 5 / 1.15150 Belleinfla
15. / 17 / 8 / 4 / 1.21596 HurricaneFan
16. / 22 / 10 / 4 / 1.22020 Jon Tay-catch
16. / 20 / 10 / 4 / 1.22020 Samuel Lobdell
18. / 18 / 9.5 / 4 / 1.31163 Alan Snyder's Hurricane and Severe Weather Central
19. / 19 / 10 / 4 / 1.31789 Jrock74
20. / 18 / 9 / 3 / 1.31878 Lurkindanger
21. / 21 / 10 / 5 / 1.33290 SunnyDaysFl
22. / 17 / 6 / 3 / 1.35976 HurricaneHunt
23. / 22 / 10 / 5 / 1.36355 Michael Anderson
23. / 20 / 10 / 5 / 1.36355 Alexander Emmett
23. / 20 / 10 / 5 / 1.36355 Sue DiMeglio Russell Kaufman
26. / 17 / 9 / 4 / 1.39546 PartyLikeSpock
27. / 19 / 8 / 6 / 1.40296 Athena
28. / 18 / 10 / 4 / 1.46631 Sadie La Rue
29. / 17.5 / 9.5 / 5 / 1.53601 Jordan Martirossian
30. / 18 / 10 / 5 / 1.58758 TybeeTime - SavannahStorm
31. / 16 / 8 / 5 / 1.61020 Andre Brooks
31. / 16 / 8 / 3 / 1.61020 NotSpa☈ta (Alex)
31. / 16 / 8 / 3 / 1.61020 Uziel Chaim Snyder
34. / 16 / 9 / 3 / 1.74971 HurricaneWatch247
35. / 19 / 11 / 5 / 1.78912 HawaiiBrian
35. / 19 / 11 / 5 / 1.78912 Mr. Tornadochase
37. / 16 / 10 / 4 / 1.86343 Dbz101
38. / 15 / 6 / 3 / 1.87132 Telford Holmes>>> Taco
39. / 18 / 10 / 6 / 1.90566 elioe
40. / 22 / 11 / 6 / 2.01597 hurricane_guineapig
41. / 23 / 12 / 4 / 2.05836 Stella
42. / 20 / 12 / 5 / 2.08789 CrazyForStormsGuy
43. / 24 / 12 / 6 / 2.47619 bigwes6844
44. / 23 / 12 / 7 / 2.75139 Native Son
45. / 27 / 12 / 6 / 2.89187 bear90ofs
46. / 24 / 14 / 5 / 2.96149 ParFormX
47. / 26 / 14 / 4 / 3.11807 Keytom
48. / 26 / 15 / 5 / 3.52654 Dirk
49. / 21 / 17 / 4 / 3.95285 Skyepony
50. / 22 / 15 / 8 / 4.00107 Mike
51. / 22 / 14 / 9 / 4.12288 Vanessa Hall
52. / 37 / 17 / 7 / 6.33367 Afrim Alimeti
2. / 19 / 7 / 4 / 0.57496 Barefootontherocks
2. / 19 / 7 / 4 / 0.57496 Weatherfan1013
4. / 21 / 9 / 4 / 0.79057 TornadoFan
5. / 20 / 9 / 4 / 0.84122 Seattleite
6. / 23 / 8 / 5 / 0.92585 SRQfl
7. / 18 / 8 / 4 / 0.94871 ClimateNHBSH
8. / 19 / 9 / 4 / 0.97754 GatorWX
9. / 21 / 9 / 3 / 0.99768 MissMolly'sMom
10. / 19 / 8.5 / 3 / 1.02592 TropicWeather
11. / 20 / 9 / 5 / 1.03828 Vintage Cars
12. / 18 / 7 / 5 / 1.05554 dogebane
12. / 18 / 7 / 3 / 1.05554 Gr8lakebreeze
14. / 23 / 9 / 5 / 1.15150 Belleinfla
15. / 17 / 8 / 4 / 1.21596 HurricaneFan
16. / 22 / 10 / 4 / 1.22020 Jon Tay-catch
16. / 20 / 10 / 4 / 1.22020 Samuel Lobdell
18. / 18 / 9.5 / 4 / 1.31163 Alan Snyder's Hurricane and Severe Weather Central
19. / 19 / 10 / 4 / 1.31789 Jrock74
20. / 18 / 9 / 3 / 1.31878 Lurkindanger
21. / 21 / 10 / 5 / 1.33290 SunnyDaysFl
22. / 17 / 6 / 3 / 1.35976 HurricaneHunt
23. / 22 / 10 / 5 / 1.36355 Michael Anderson
23. / 20 / 10 / 5 / 1.36355 Alexander Emmett
23. / 20 / 10 / 5 / 1.36355 Sue DiMeglio Russell Kaufman
26. / 17 / 9 / 4 / 1.39546 PartyLikeSpock
27. / 19 / 8 / 6 / 1.40296 Athena
28. / 18 / 10 / 4 / 1.46631 Sadie La Rue
29. / 17.5 / 9.5 / 5 / 1.53601 Jordan Martirossian
30. / 18 / 10 / 5 / 1.58758 TybeeTime - SavannahStorm
31. / 16 / 8 / 5 / 1.61020 Andre Brooks
31. / 16 / 8 / 3 / 1.61020 NotSpa☈ta (Alex)
31. / 16 / 8 / 3 / 1.61020 Uziel Chaim Snyder
34. / 16 / 9 / 3 / 1.74971 HurricaneWatch247
35. / 19 / 11 / 5 / 1.78912 HawaiiBrian
35. / 19 / 11 / 5 / 1.78912 Mr. Tornadochase
37. / 16 / 10 / 4 / 1.86343 Dbz101
38. / 15 / 6 / 3 / 1.87132 Telford Holmes>>> Taco
39. / 18 / 10 / 6 / 1.90566 elioe
40. / 22 / 11 / 6 / 2.01597 hurricane_guineapig
41. / 23 / 12 / 4 / 2.05836 Stella
42. / 20 / 12 / 5 / 2.08789 CrazyForStormsGuy
43. / 24 / 12 / 6 / 2.47619 bigwes6844
44. / 23 / 12 / 7 / 2.75139 Native Son
45. / 27 / 12 / 6 / 2.89187 bear90ofs
46. / 24 / 14 / 5 / 2.96149 ParFormX
47. / 26 / 14 / 4 / 3.11807 Keytom
48. / 26 / 15 / 5 / 3.52654 Dirk
49. / 21 / 17 / 4 / 3.95285 Skyepony
50. / 22 / 15 / 8 / 4.00107 Mike
51. / 22 / 14 / 9 / 4.12288 Vanessa Hall
52. / 37 / 17 / 7 / 6.33367 Afrim Alimeti
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