Verification of ghost storm tracks of September-October 2018
I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in Atlantic 39 times in September and October 2018. Tracks were made
of 14 systems.
At the lead time of 1 days (24 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 1 false detections.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 10 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 13 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 14 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 16 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 19 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 19 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 20 false detections.
Circle coloration scheme
Ghost storm #51
Ghost storm #67
Ghost storm #72
At the lead time of 1 days (24 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 1 false detections.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 10 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 13 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 14 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 16 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 19 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 19 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 20 false detections.
Circle coloration scheme
Ghost storm #51
These tracks began in August already.
September 1, 12Z run:
September 2, 12Z run:
September 4, 12Z run:
September 5, 06Z run:
September 7, 12Z run:
September 10, 12Z run:
System #52 was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Gordon.
Ghost storm #53
A track of this system was made in August already.
September 2, 12Z run:
System #54 was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was TD 11.
System #55 was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Leslie
System #56 was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Joyce.
System #57 was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Michael.
Ghost storm #58
This isolated incident is not identifiable due to large lead time.
September 14, 12Z run:
System #59 was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was an assumed regeneration of Michael, otherwise represented by #57.
Ghost storm #60
This is best identifiable with a wave, here near 10N 30W.
September 15, 18Z run:
September 16, 06Z run:
September 16, 18Z run:
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