Ranking of 2018 Atlantic hurricane season predictions

As I'm writing this, season totals stand at 15-8-2. Oscar is not expected to be upgraded to a major. Post-season analysis may downgrade Isaac to a tropical storm, and/or add the February system as a subtropical storm. Whether it's 15-8-2, 15-7-2, 16-8-2 or 16-7-2, it doesn't matter in terms of the winner...

Congratulations, capt deez!

The combined error is calculated as follows:


sqrt( (E_ns/N_ns)^2 + (E_hu/N_hu)^2 + (E_mh/N_mh)^2 )


where E_ns is error and N_ns is actual number of nameable storms,
E_hu is error and N_hu is actual number of hurricanes and
E_mh is error and N_mh is actual number of major hurricanes.

The following has the format of

ranking. / predicted named storms / predicted hurricanes / predicted major hurricanes / combined error and Disqus handle at time of giving prediction



1. / 14 /  7 /  2 /  0.14167    capt deez
2. / 12 /  7 /  2 /  0.23585    Hoon
3. / 15 /  6 /  2 /  0.25000    Seattleite
4. / 14 /  6 /  2 /  0.25874    TropicalAnalystwx13
5. / 13.5 /  6 /  2 /  0.26926    TROPICALCYCLONEALERT
6. / 13 /  6 /  2 /  0.28333    daddyjames
6. / 13 /  6 /  2 /  0.28333    Hurricane4Caster
8. / 13 /  5.5 /  2 /  0.33976    Rd003
9. / 13 /  6 /  2.5 /  0.37786    typhonium
10. / 14 /  5 /  2 /  0.38088    GateKeeper
10. / 14 /  5 /  2 /  0.38088    IsoThunder
12. / 13 /  5 /  2 /  0.39800    win1gamegiantsplease
12. / 13 /  5 /  2 /  0.39800    Cameron Masiello
12. / 13 /  5 /  2 /  0.39800    West FL Bolts
15. / 12 /  5 /  2 /  0.42500    Stormwatch247
16. / 12 /  5.5 /  2.5 /  0.44739    HurricaneFan
17. / 11 /  5 /  2 /  0.46015    GTStormChaserCaleb
17. / 11 /  5 /  2 /  0.46015    MAweatherboy1
17. / 11 /  5 /  2 /  0.46015    Nrtiwlnvragn
20. / 10.5 /  6 /  2.5 /  0.46368    Eyewall
21. / 15 /  4 /  2 /  0.50000    thisisacreativename
22. / 16 /  8 /  3 /  0.50442    hurricaneivan
22. / 14 /  8 /  3 /  0.50442    Telford Holmes
22. / 14 /  8 /  3 /  0.50442    SunnyDaysFl
22. / 14 /  4 /  2 /  0.50442    InsideUK
26. / 15 /  9 /  3 /  0.51539    Giancarlo
26. / 15 /  7 /  3 /  0.51539    CrazyForStormsGuy
26. / 15 /  7 /  3 /  0.51539    StormChaser19
29. / 13 /  4 /  2 /  0.51747    HurricaneWatcher61
30. / 16 /  7 /  3 /  0.51968    Alexander Emmett
30. / 14 /  7 /  3 /  0.51968    KoriTheMan
32. / 13 /  7 /  3 /  0.53236    WXManWannabe
32. / 13 /  7 /  3 /  0.53236    Jrock74
32. / 13 /  7 /  3 /  0.53236    JRRP
32. / 13 /  7 /  3 /  0.53236    envoirment
32. / 17 /  7 /  3 /  0.53236    ChiThom
37. / 18 /  8 /  3 /  0.53852    Joseph Sturch
38. / 12.5 /  7 /  3 /  0.54167    Andre Brooks
39. / 15 /  6 /  3 /  0.55902    WeatherkidJoe2323
39. / 15 /  6 /  3 /  0.55902    Gene
39. / 15 /  6 /  3 /  0.55902    Lips Like Morphine
39. / 15 /  6 /  3 /  0.55902    Hurifisher
39. / 15 /  6 /  3 /  0.55902    guitarmanaaw
44. / 14 /  6 /  3 /  0.56298    Icybubba
44. / 14 /  6 /  3 /  0.56298    swflurker
44. / 16 / 10 /  3 /  0.56298    bayoubug
44. / 14 /  6 /  3 /  0.56298    ThisIsNotSparta
44. / 14 /  6 /  3 /  0.56298    Malik Boggs
49. / 11 /  4 /  2 /  0.56667    Bearded Glory
50. / 13 /  6 /  3 /  0.57470    Kandiman2484
50. / 17 /  6 /  3 /  0.57470    SRQfl
50. / 17 / 10 /  3 /  0.57470    Chancho1423
50. / 13 /  6 /  3 /  0.57470    all4hurricanes
54. / 19 /  9 /  3 /  0.58029    Herando Florida
55. / 10.5 /  4 /  2 /  0.58310    dre33
56. / 12 /  6 /  3 /  0.59372    HyperCyclone X
56. / 18 / 10 /  3 /  0.59372    Vintage Cars
58. / 11 /  6 /  1 /  0.61936    Mediarologist
59. / 14 /  5 /  3 /  0.62855    999Ai
59. / 14 /  5 /  1 /  0.62855    Kayla Sanders
61. / 13 /  5 /  3 /  0.63906    Mouse ears
61. / 13 /  5 /  3 /  0.63906    IDTH
63. / 12 /  4 /  3 /  0.73485    Linus
64. /  9 /  5 /  1 /  0.74204    Cheap Bandaids
65. /  9 /  3 /  1 /  0.89478    101010edwebster
66. / 15 /  8 /  4 /  1.00000    Cthulhu
66. / 15 /  8 /  4 /  1.00000    Wade
66. / 15 /  8 /  4 /  1.00000    StacHoumaLa
66. / 15 /  8 /  4 /  1.00000    Joshua
70. / 16 /  8 /  4 /  1.00222    Grothar
70. / 16 /  8 /  4 /  1.00222    Ron
70. / 14 /  8 /  4 /  1.00222    Shawn
70. / 14 /  8 /  4 /  1.00222    Lurkindanger
70. / 16 /  8 /  4 /  1.00222    SLU
70. / 14 /  8 /  4 /  1.00222    Caleb Hardee
70. / 16 /  8 /  4 /  1.00222    SWFLWx
77. / 15 /  7 /  4 /  1.00778    TheReaperofCanada
77. / 15 /  7 /  4 /  1.00778    Caribboy
79. / 17 /  8 /  4 /  1.00885    Nash40
79. / 17 /  8 /  4 /  1.00885    fyrebyrd042
81. / 16 /  9 /  4 /  1.00998    Hurricane Jose
81. / 14 /  7 /  4 /  1.00998    Mr. Neutral
81. / 16 /  9 /  4 /  1.00998    BaltimoreBrian
81. / 16 /  7 /  4 /  1.00998    BarbaraGermany
85. / 17 /  7 /  4 /  1.01656    Todd Alan
85. / 17 /  9 /  4 /  1.01656    Kallenjr69
85. / 17 /  7 /  4 /  1.01656    Michael Paul
85. / 17 /  7 /  4 /  1.01656    ChillinInTheKeys
85. / 17 /  7 /  4 /  1.01656    Michael Anderson
85. / 17 /  9 /  4 /  1.01656    Taz&Storm Master
85. / 13 /  7 /  4 /  1.01656    Arif Samad
85. / 13 /  7 /  4 /  1.01656    G. Bri
93. / 12 /  8 /  4 /  1.01980    Matt Barnell
94. / 15 /  6 /  4 /  1.03078    Cam Pine
95. / 16 / 10 /  4 /  1.03293    nasbah082001
95. / 14 / 10 /  4 /  1.03293    rmbjoe5806
95. / 14 /  6 /  4 /  1.03293    SeminoleWind
98. / 13 /  6 /  4 /  1.03936    beell
99. / 16.5 /  5 /  4 /  1.07267    wunderkidcayman@WU
100. / 17.5 /  7.5 /  4.5 /  1.26261    CyclonicEddz
101. / 18.5 /  9 /  4.5 /  1.27772    NH News
102. / 13 /  8 /  5 /  1.50591    OBXLurker
103. / 14 /  7 /  5 /  1.50667    Yvette Helen Owes
104. / 17 /  9 /  5 /  1.51109    bear90ofs
105. / 17 /  9 /  5 /  1.51109    882MB
106. / 18 /  8 /  5 /  1.51327    Mike
106. / 18 /  8 /  5 /  1.51327    DogeBane
108. / 18 /  8.5 /  5 /  1.51456    elsbethie
109. / 18 /  9 /  5 /  1.51843    Cyclone2016
110. / 17 / 10 /  5 /  1.52652    DewPointOneDrop
111. / 13 /  5 /  5 /  1.55190    Zachary Norgren
112. / 20 / 11 /  5 /  1.58169    elioe
112. / 20 / 11 /  5 /  1.58169    earthisanocean
114. /  0 /  0 /  0 /  1.73205    Hazel
114. /  0 /  0 /  0 /  1.73205    Great Winter of 2017
114. /  0 /  0 /  0 /  1.73205    Haoleboysurfec
117. / 19 / 10.5 /  5.5 /  1.79757    StayAlive77
118. / 18 / 12 /  6 /  2.07123    dabirds
119. / 21 / 12 /  6 /  2.10000    Samuel Lobdell
120. / 23 / 12 /  6 /  2.12942    WXColorado
121. / 19 / 15 /  6 /  2.19926    not a machine
122. / 16 / 11 /  7 /  2.52885    Xandra
123. / 21 / 11 /  7 /  2.55942    Navin Singh
124. / 83 / 83 / 83 / 41.81736    kenfine

The blog post will be subject to revision, if official totals change, and if I'm not too lazy to revise!

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