Verification of tracks made of Alvin using GEFS mean fields
I made 19 tracks of Hurricane Alvin. Additionally, within 384
hours of cyclogenesis, there were 18 instances, when I missed
cyclogenesis entirely. The first detection of Alvin was way less than 16 days before cyclogenesis. Also originally, cyclogenesis was predicted well too late and well too far west.
As of this analysis, best track positions are available June 22, 12Z thru June 29, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Getting out of the frame of East Pacific tracking map is considered equal to dissipation for the purpose of this verification.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the 19 tracks, formation times ranged between June 23, 12Z and June 29, 06Z. Average was June 25, 12Z and median was June 24, 12Z.
In the 37 cases (19 tracks and 18 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category 0.62 and median was Category 1.
In the 19 tracks, dissipation times ranged between June 30, 06Z and July 13, 12Z. Average was July 4, 03Z and median was July 2, 06Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hit, 4 false detections and 2 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 123 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 4 hits, 3 false detections and 2 misses. 7 available position comparisons produce an average error of 143 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 6 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. 8 available position comparisons produce an average error of 109 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 6 hits, 4 false detections and 2 misses. 10 available position comparisons produce an average error of 101 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 6 hits, 6 false detections and 0 misses. 12 available position comparisons produce an average error of 131 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 6 hits, 6 false detections and 0 misses. 10 available position comparisons produce an average error of 140 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 7 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 8 available position comparisons produce an average error of 151 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 7 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 7 available position comparisons produce an average error of 155 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 6 hits, 2 false detections and 5 misses. 7 available position comparisons produce an average error of 227 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 3 hits, 4 false detections and 6 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 317 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 2 hits, 7 false detections and 5 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 433 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 1 hit, 8 false detections and 5 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 503 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 8 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 6 false detections and 9 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 5 false detections and 11 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 5 false detections and 10 misses. No available position comparisons.
Here are the tracks once again.
June 16, 18Z run:
June 17, 06Z run:
June 17, 18Z run:
June 18, 06Z run:
June 18, 12Z run:
June 18, 18Z run:
June 19, 06Z run:
June 19, 12Z run:
June 19, 18Z run:
June 20, 06Z run:
June 20, 12Z run:
June 21, 06Z run:
June 22, 12Z run:
June 23, 06Z run:
June 23, 12Z run:
June 23, 18Z run:
June 24, 06Z run:
June 24, 12Z run:
June 25, 12Z run:
The complete misses were from following runs:
June 10, 06Z
June 10, 12Z
June 10, 18Z
June 11, 06Z
June 11, 12Z
June 11, 18Z
June 12, 06Z
June 12, 12Z
June 12, 18Z
June 13, 06Z
June 13, 12Z
June 13, 18Z
June 14, 06Z
June 15, 06Z
June 16, 12Z
June 17, 12Z
June 24, 18Z
June 25, 06Z
As of this analysis, best track positions are available June 22, 12Z thru June 29, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Getting out of the frame of East Pacific tracking map is considered equal to dissipation for the purpose of this verification.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the 19 tracks, formation times ranged between June 23, 12Z and June 29, 06Z. Average was June 25, 12Z and median was June 24, 12Z.
In the 37 cases (19 tracks and 18 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category 0.62 and median was Category 1.
In the 19 tracks, dissipation times ranged between June 30, 06Z and July 13, 12Z. Average was July 4, 03Z and median was July 2, 06Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hit, 4 false detections and 2 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 123 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 4 hits, 3 false detections and 2 misses. 7 available position comparisons produce an average error of 143 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 6 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. 8 available position comparisons produce an average error of 109 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 6 hits, 4 false detections and 2 misses. 10 available position comparisons produce an average error of 101 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 6 hits, 6 false detections and 0 misses. 12 available position comparisons produce an average error of 131 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 6 hits, 6 false detections and 0 misses. 10 available position comparisons produce an average error of 140 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 7 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 8 available position comparisons produce an average error of 151 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 7 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 7 available position comparisons produce an average error of 155 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 6 hits, 2 false detections and 5 misses. 7 available position comparisons produce an average error of 227 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 3 hits, 4 false detections and 6 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 317 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 2 hits, 7 false detections and 5 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 433 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 1 hit, 8 false detections and 5 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 503 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 8 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 6 false detections and 9 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 5 false detections and 11 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 5 false detections and 10 misses. No available position comparisons.
Here are the tracks once again.
June 16, 18Z run:
June 17, 06Z run:
June 17, 18Z run:
June 18, 06Z run:
June 18, 12Z run:
June 18, 18Z run:
June 19, 06Z run:
June 19, 12Z run:
June 19, 18Z run:
June 20, 06Z run:
June 20, 12Z run:
June 21, 06Z run:
June 22, 12Z run:
June 23, 06Z run:
June 23, 12Z run:
June 23, 18Z run:
June 24, 06Z run:
June 24, 12Z run:
June 25, 12Z run:
The complete misses were from following runs:
June 10, 06Z
June 10, 12Z
June 10, 18Z
June 11, 06Z
June 11, 12Z
June 11, 18Z
June 12, 06Z
June 12, 12Z
June 12, 18Z
June 13, 06Z
June 13, 12Z
June 13, 18Z
June 14, 06Z
June 15, 06Z
June 16, 12Z
June 17, 12Z
June 24, 18Z
June 25, 06Z
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