Verification of East Pacific ghost storm tracks of January-May 2019
I falsely detected tropical cyclogenesis in East Pacific (north of the equator and east of 140W longitude) 149 times in January thru May of 2019. Additionally, false Atlantic cyclogeneses led to crossover into the basin 9 times. Tracks were made of 24 systems.
In the calculations, crossover into Atlantic as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to dissipation, and crossover from Atlantic as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to formation or regeneration. Exiting the East Pacific tracking map through its left edge is also considered equal to dissipation.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 10 false detections.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 14 false detections.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 13 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 9 false detections.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 14 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 21 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 21 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 20 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 37 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 52 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 74 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 78 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 89 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 99 false detections.
Unlike for Atlantic, I know of no archive of synoptic charts for East Pacific. Therefore I'm going to leave most systems without any description.
Circle coloration scheme
January 2, 12Z run:
January 2, 18Z run:
January 3, 00Z run:
January 3, 06Z run:
January 3, 12Z run:
January 3, 18Z run:
January 4, 06Z run:
January 13, 12Z run:
January 19, 12Z run:
January 31, 12Z run:
January 31, 18Z run:
February 1, 06Z run:
February 1, 12Z run:
February 10, 12Z run:
February 10, 18Z run:
February 6, 12Z run:
February 20, 12Z run:
February 21, 12Z run:
February 22, 12Z run:
February 24, 12Z run:
February 25, 12Z run:
March 4, 12Z run:
March 7, 12Z run:
March 16, 06Z run:
March 17, 12Z run:
March 17, 18Z run:
March 18, 12Z run:
March 18, 18Z run:
March 19, 00Z run:
March 19, 06Z run:
March 20, 06Z run:
March 25, 12Z run:
March 31, 18Z run:
April 2, 18Z run:
April 7, 06Z run:
April 7, 18Z run:
April 8, 12Z run:
April 8, 18Z run:
April 9, 00Z run:
April 9, 06Z run:
April 9, 12Z run:
April 9, 18Z run:
April 10, 00Z run:
April 10, 06Z run:
April 10, 12Z run:
April 10, 18Z run:
April 11, 06Z run:
April 12, 00Z run:
April 12, 06Z run:
April 11, 06Z run:
April 13, 06Z run:
April 14, 00Z run:
April 14, 06Z run:
April 15, 00Z run:
April 15, 06Z run:
April 15, 12Z run:
April 16, 06Z run:
April 16, 18Z run:
April 17, 00Z run:
April 17, 06Z run:
April 22, 12Z run:
Crossovers from Atlantic
April 28, 00Z run:
April 28, 06Z run:
April 28, 18Z run:
April 29, 06Z run:
May 1, 18Z run:
May 2, 12Z run:
May 3, 12Z run:
April 29, 18Z run:
May 1, 06Z run:
May 1, 12Z run:
May 2, 06Z run:
May 2, 18Z run:
May 3, 06Z run:
May 4, 06Z run:
May 7, 18Z run:
May 8, 06Z run:
May 9, 12Z run:
May 9, 18Z run:
May 10, 06Z run:
May 10, 12Z run:
May 11, 06Z run:
May 11, 12Z run:
May 12, 06Z run:
May 12, 12Z run:
May 12, 18Z run:
May 13, 18Z run:
Main identification Invest 91E, other direct connections Invest 91L, L#15 and L#20. 91E was given 30%/50% chance of development at maximum.
May 13, 06Z run:
May 13, 12Z run.
May 13, 18Z run:
May 14, 06Z run:
May 14, 12Z run:
May 14, 18Z run:
May 15, 06Z run:
May 15, 18Z run:
May 16, 06Z run:
May 16, 12Z run:
May 16, 18Z run:
May 17, 06Z run:
May 17, 12Z run:
May 17, 18Z run:
May 19, 06Z run:
May 19, 18Z run:
May 20, 06Z run:
May 20, 12Z run:
May 20, 18Z run:
May 21, 06Z run:
May 21, 12Z run:
May 21, 18Z run:
May 22, 06Z run:
May 22, 12Z run:
May 22, 18Z run:
May 23, 18Z run:
May 24, 06Z run:
May 24, 12Z run:
May 25, 06Z run:
May 25, 12Z run:
May 26, 06Z run:
May 14, 12Z run:
May 15, 06Z run:
May 15, 12Z run:
May 15, 18Z run:
May 16, 06Z run:
May 16, 12Z run:
May 19, 12Z run:
May 23, 06Z run:
May 23, 18Z run:
May 15, 12Z run:
May 19, 18Z run:
May 20, 06Z run:
May 22, 06Z run:
May 22, 12Z run:
May 22, 18Z run:
May 23, 06Z run:
May 23, 12Z run:
May 23, 18Z run:
May 24, 06Z run:
May 25, 06Z run:
May 25, 12Z run:
May 26, 06Z run:
May 26, 12Z run:
May 26, 18Z run:
May 26, 12Z run:
May 26, 18Z run:
May 27, 06Z run:
May 27, 18Z run:
These tracks continued in June.
May 27, 12Z run:
May 27, 18Z run:
May 28, 18Z run:
May 29, 06Z run:
May 29, 12Z run:
May 29, 18Z run:
May 30, 06Z run:
May 30, 12Z run:
In the calculations, crossover into Atlantic as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to dissipation, and crossover from Atlantic as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to formation or regeneration. Exiting the East Pacific tracking map through its left edge is also considered equal to dissipation.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 10 false detections.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 14 false detections.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 13 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 9 false detections.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 14 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 21 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 21 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 20 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 37 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 52 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 74 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 78 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 89 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 99 false detections.
Unlike for Atlantic, I know of no archive of synoptic charts for East Pacific. Therefore I'm going to leave most systems without any description.
Circle coloration scheme
Ghost storm E#01
This one was monitored by NHC, with up to 50% chance of cyclogenesis given in TWO.
January 2, 06Z run:
January 2, 18Z run:
January 3, 00Z run:
January 3, 06Z run:
January 3, 12Z run:
January 3, 18Z run:
January 4, 06Z run:
Ghost storm E#02
January 13, 12Z run:
Ghost storm E#03
January 19, 12Z run:
Ghost storm E#04
January 31, 12Z run:
January 31, 18Z run:
February 1, 12Z run:
February 10, 12Z run:
February 10, 18Z run:
Ghost storm E#05
February 6, 12Z run:
Ghost storm E#06
February 20, 12Z run:
February 21, 12Z run:
February 22, 12Z run:
February 24, 12Z run:
February 25, 12Z run:
Ghost storm E#07
March 4, 12Z run:
March 7, 12Z run:
Ghost storm E#08
March 16, 06Z run:
March 17, 12Z run:
March 17, 18Z run:
March 18, 12Z run:
March 18, 18Z run:
March 19, 00Z run:
March 19, 06Z run:
March 20, 06Z run:
Ghost storm E#09
March 25, 12Z run:
Ghost storm E#10
March 31, 18Z run:
April 2, 18Z run:
Ghost storm L#08
Crossover from AtlanticApril 7, 06Z run:
Ghost storm E#11
April 7, 18Z run:
April 8, 12Z run:
April 8, 18Z run:
April 9, 00Z run:
April 9, 06Z run:
April 9, 12Z run:
April 9, 18Z run:
April 10, 00Z run:
April 10, 06Z run:
April 10, 12Z run:
April 10, 18Z run:
April 11, 06Z run:
April 12, 00Z run:
April 12, 06Z run:
Ghost storm E#12
April 11, 06Z run:
Ghost storm E#13
April 13, 06Z run:
April 14, 00Z run:
April 14, 06Z run:
April 15, 00Z run:
April 15, 06Z run:
April 15, 12Z run:
April 16, 06Z run:
April 16, 18Z run:
April 17, 00Z run:
April 17, 06Z run:
Ghost storm E#14
April 22, 12Z run:
Ghost storm L#14
Crossovers from Atlantic
April 28, 00Z run:
April 28, 06Z run:
April 28, 18Z run:
April 29, 06Z run:
May 1, 18Z run:
May 2, 12Z run:
May 3, 12Z run:
Ghost storm E#15
April 29, 18Z run:
May 1, 06Z run:
May 1, 12Z run:
May 2, 06Z run:
May 2, 18Z run:
May 3, 06Z run:
May 4, 06Z run:
May 7, 18Z run:
Ghost storm L#15
Crossover from Atlantic. The label L#15 was ended, when the area of cyclogenesis shifted to EPac. Through that shift, and further shifts, this is identifiable with labels E#17 and L#20, and identifiable with Invest 91E and Invest 91L.May 8, 06Z run:
Ghost storm E#16
May 9, 06Z run:
May 9, 12Z run:
May 9, 18Z run:
May 10, 06Z run:
May 10, 12Z run:
May 11, 06Z run:
May 11, 12Z run:
May 12, 06Z run:
May 12, 12Z run:
May 12, 18Z run:
May 13, 18Z run:
Ghost storm E#17
Main identification Invest 91E, other direct connections Invest 91L, L#15 and L#20. 91E was given 30%/50% chance of development at maximum.
May 13, 06Z run:
May 13, 12Z run.
May 13, 18Z run:
May 14, 06Z run:
May 14, 12Z run:
May 14, 18Z run:
May 15, 06Z run:
May 15, 18Z run:
May 16, 06Z run:
May 16, 12Z run:
May 16, 18Z run:
May 17, 06Z run:
May 17, 12Z run:
May 17, 18Z run:
May 19, 06Z run:
May 19, 18Z run:
May 20, 06Z run:
May 20, 12Z run:
May 20, 18Z run:
May 21, 06Z run:
May 21, 12Z run:
May 21, 18Z run:
May 22, 06Z run:
May 22, 12Z run:
May 22, 18Z run:
May 23, 18Z run:
May 24, 06Z run:
May 24, 12Z run:
May 25, 06Z run:
May 25, 12Z run:
May 26, 06Z run:
Ghost storm E#18
May 14, 06Z run:May 14, 12Z run:
May 15, 06Z run:
May 15, 12Z run:
May 15, 18Z run:
May 16, 06Z run:
May 16, 12Z run:
May 19, 12Z run:
May 23, 06Z run:
May 23, 18Z run:
Ghost storm E#19
May 15, 12Z run:
May 19, 18Z run:
May 20, 06Z run:
May 22, 06Z run:
May 22, 12Z run:
May 22, 18Z run:
May 23, 06Z run:
May 23, 12Z run:
May 23, 18Z run:
May 24, 06Z run:
May 25, 06Z run:
May 26, 06Z run:
May 26, 12Z run:
May 26, 18Z run:
Ghost storm E#20
May 19, 12Z run:
May 26, 12Z run:
May 26, 18Z run:
May 27, 06Z run:
May 27, 18Z run:
Ghost storm E#21
These tracks continued in June.
May 27, 12Z run:
May 27, 18Z run:
May 28, 18Z run:
May 29, 06Z run:
May 29, 12Z run:
May 29, 18Z run:
May 30, 06Z run:
May 30, 12Z run:
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