Verification of tracks made of TD 4-E using GEFS mean fields

I made four tracks of Tropical Depression Four-E. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were eleven instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. In the tracks, there was typically too much longevity and too high peak intensity.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available July 11, 00Z thru July 14, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the four tracks, formation times ranged between July 9, 00Z and July 14, 12Z. Average was July 12, 11Z and median was July 13, 03Z.

In the 15 cases (4 tracks and 11 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 1. Average was Category -1.33 and median was Category -2.

In the four tracks, dissipation times ranged between July 10, 18Z and July 22, 18Z. Average was July 17, 13Z and median was July 18, 09Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 197 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 187 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 208 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.


Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

 June 23, 06Z run:

July 4, 06Z run:

July 5, 06Z run:

July 6, 06Z run:

The complete misses were from following runs:

June 26, 12Z
June 27, 06Z
June 28, 06Z
June 30, 12Z
June 30, 18Z

July 1, 06Z
July 2, 06Z
July 3, 06Z
July 7, 06Z
July 8, 06Z

July 9, 06Z