Verification of tracks made on Ophelia (2017) using GEFS mean fields
This is a repost from early 2018
I made seven tracks about Hurricane Ophelia. Additionally, there were 16 cases, where I missed cyclogenesis. Area of genesis was well predicted. Peak intensity was also well predicted in those cases, where cyclogenesis was shown. Movement towards Europe was completely missed.
My intensity and position analyses begin at first time with one of my tracks showing cyclogenesis, October 8, 18Z. Position analysis ends at last time with best track data, October 16, 12Z. Intensity analysis ends at October 28, 00Z, after which none of my tracks continued.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical storms as "Category 0", tropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical cyclone as "Category -2".
I compare intensities only in cases, when either the best track data or my track has a tropical cyclone, or both. In other words, I leave the comparison out of calculations, if both best track data and my track lack a tropical cyclone.
In the seven tracks, formation times ranged between October 8, 18Z and October 14, 06Z. Median was October 12, 18Z and average was October 12, 11Z.
The 23 peak intensities (those 16 complete misses included) ranged between non-formation (Category -2) and Category 5. Median was Category -2 and average was Category -0.7.
Dissipation times ranged between October 15, 06Z and October 28, 06Z. Median was October 21, 00Z and average was October 20, 09Z.
The following lines will have the format:
lead time ... number of true detections ... number of misses ... number of false detections ... number of position comparisons ... number of intensity comparisons ... average error in intensity category ... bias in intensity category ... average error in latitude ... bias in latitude ... average error in longitude ... bias in longitude ... upper limit for scalar error in position (nautical miles)... calculated scalar bias in position (nautical miles)
168h ... 2 ... 11 ... 0 ... 2 ... 13 ... 2.3 ... -2.3 ... 3.7 ... 3.7S ... 5.8 ... 5.8W ... 380 ... 380
192h ... 3 ... 12 ... 0 ... 3 ... 15 ... 2.4 ... -2.4 ... 4.9 ... 4.9S ... 7.0 ... 7.0W ... 480 ... 480
216h ... 4 ... 11 ... 0 ... 4 ... 15 ... 2.6 ... -2.6 ... 7.7 ... 7.7S ... 11.6 ... 11.6W ... 770 ... 770
240h ... 3 ... 12 ... 1 ... 4 ... 16 ... 3.2 ... -2.2 ... 14.5 ... 14.5S ... 19.1 ... 19.1W ... 1320 ... 1320
264h ... 0 ... 13 ... 4 ... 2 ... 17 ... 3.9 ... -1.7 ... 21.8 ... 21.8S ... 23.1 ... 23.1W ... 1780 ... 1780
288h ... 1 ... 10 ... 4 ... 1 ... 15 ... 3.6 ... -1.5 ... 4.9 ... 4.9N ... 10.6 ... 10.6W ... 630 ... 630
312h ... 1 ... 9 ... 4 ... 1 ... 14 ... 3.1 ... -1.1 ... 4.8 ... 4.8N ... 15.4 ... 15.4W ... 810 ... 810
336h ... 1 ... 8 ... 5 ... 2 ... 14 ... 2.6 ... -0.7 ... 4.1 ... 4.1N ... 12.1 ... 9.5W ... 660 ... 540
360h ... 1 ... 7 ... 4 ... 1 ... 12 ... 2.5 ... -0.7 ... 3.6 ... 3.6N ... 3.7 ... 3.7E ... 290 ... 290
384h ... 2 ... 6 ... 3 ... 2 ... 11 ... 2.7 ... -1.1 ... 4.3 ... 0.3N ... 4.7 ... 0.5W ... 360 ... 30
408h ... 2 ... 5 ... 1 ... 2 ... 8 ... 3.3 ... -2.0 ... 5.9 ... 0.0 ... 5.9 ... 0.6W ... 470 ... 30
432h ... 2 ... 4 ... 1 ... 2 ... 7 ... 3.3 ... -2.4 ... 9.0 ... 0.5S ... 9.2 ... 3.9W ... 710 ... 200
456h ... 1 ... 4 ... 2 ... 2 ... 7 ... 3.3 ... -2.1 ... 14.1 ... 6.1S ... 8.9 ... 8.9W ... 950 ... 570
480h ... 1 ... 2 ... 1 ... 1 ... 4 ... 3.3 ... -1.3 ... 3.5 ... 3.5N ... 11.4 ... 11.4W ... 590 ... 590
Here are the tracks once again.
September 25, 00Z run:
September 27, 06Z run:
October 1, 06Z run:
October 5, 06Z run:
October 5, 12Z run:
October 5, 18Z run:
October 6, 06Z run:
The runs with complete misses were:
September 25, 06Z
September 25, 18Z
September 26, 06Z
September 26, 12Z
September 28, 06Z
September 29, 06Z
October 1, 12Z
October 2, 06Z
October 2, 12Z
October 2, 18Z
October 3, 06Z
October 3, 12Z
October 3, 18Z
October 4, 00Z
October 4, 06Z
October 4, 12Z
I made seven tracks about Hurricane Ophelia. Additionally, there were 16 cases, where I missed cyclogenesis. Area of genesis was well predicted. Peak intensity was also well predicted in those cases, where cyclogenesis was shown. Movement towards Europe was completely missed.
My intensity and position analyses begin at first time with one of my tracks showing cyclogenesis, October 8, 18Z. Position analysis ends at last time with best track data, October 16, 12Z. Intensity analysis ends at October 28, 00Z, after which none of my tracks continued.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical storms as "Category 0", tropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical cyclone as "Category -2".
I compare intensities only in cases, when either the best track data or my track has a tropical cyclone, or both. In other words, I leave the comparison out of calculations, if both best track data and my track lack a tropical cyclone.
In the seven tracks, formation times ranged between October 8, 18Z and October 14, 06Z. Median was October 12, 18Z and average was October 12, 11Z.
The 23 peak intensities (those 16 complete misses included) ranged between non-formation (Category -2) and Category 5. Median was Category -2 and average was Category -0.7.
Dissipation times ranged between October 15, 06Z and October 28, 06Z. Median was October 21, 00Z and average was October 20, 09Z.
The following lines will have the format:
lead time ... number of true detections ... number of misses ... number of false detections ... number of position comparisons ... number of intensity comparisons ... average error in intensity category ... bias in intensity category ... average error in latitude ... bias in latitude ... average error in longitude ... bias in longitude ... upper limit for scalar error in position (nautical miles)... calculated scalar bias in position (nautical miles)
168h ... 2 ... 11 ... 0 ... 2 ... 13 ... 2.3 ... -2.3 ... 3.7 ... 3.7S ... 5.8 ... 5.8W ... 380 ... 380
192h ... 3 ... 12 ... 0 ... 3 ... 15 ... 2.4 ... -2.4 ... 4.9 ... 4.9S ... 7.0 ... 7.0W ... 480 ... 480
216h ... 4 ... 11 ... 0 ... 4 ... 15 ... 2.6 ... -2.6 ... 7.7 ... 7.7S ... 11.6 ... 11.6W ... 770 ... 770
240h ... 3 ... 12 ... 1 ... 4 ... 16 ... 3.2 ... -2.2 ... 14.5 ... 14.5S ... 19.1 ... 19.1W ... 1320 ... 1320
264h ... 0 ... 13 ... 4 ... 2 ... 17 ... 3.9 ... -1.7 ... 21.8 ... 21.8S ... 23.1 ... 23.1W ... 1780 ... 1780
288h ... 1 ... 10 ... 4 ... 1 ... 15 ... 3.6 ... -1.5 ... 4.9 ... 4.9N ... 10.6 ... 10.6W ... 630 ... 630
312h ... 1 ... 9 ... 4 ... 1 ... 14 ... 3.1 ... -1.1 ... 4.8 ... 4.8N ... 15.4 ... 15.4W ... 810 ... 810
336h ... 1 ... 8 ... 5 ... 2 ... 14 ... 2.6 ... -0.7 ... 4.1 ... 4.1N ... 12.1 ... 9.5W ... 660 ... 540
360h ... 1 ... 7 ... 4 ... 1 ... 12 ... 2.5 ... -0.7 ... 3.6 ... 3.6N ... 3.7 ... 3.7E ... 290 ... 290
384h ... 2 ... 6 ... 3 ... 2 ... 11 ... 2.7 ... -1.1 ... 4.3 ... 0.3N ... 4.7 ... 0.5W ... 360 ... 30
408h ... 2 ... 5 ... 1 ... 2 ... 8 ... 3.3 ... -2.0 ... 5.9 ... 0.0 ... 5.9 ... 0.6W ... 470 ... 30
432h ... 2 ... 4 ... 1 ... 2 ... 7 ... 3.3 ... -2.4 ... 9.0 ... 0.5S ... 9.2 ... 3.9W ... 710 ... 200
456h ... 1 ... 4 ... 2 ... 2 ... 7 ... 3.3 ... -2.1 ... 14.1 ... 6.1S ... 8.9 ... 8.9W ... 950 ... 570
480h ... 1 ... 2 ... 1 ... 1 ... 4 ... 3.3 ... -1.3 ... 3.5 ... 3.5N ... 11.4 ... 11.4W ... 590 ... 590
Here are the tracks once again.
September 25, 00Z run:
The runs with complete misses were:
September 25, 06Z
September 25, 18Z
September 26, 06Z
September 26, 12Z
September 28, 06Z
September 29, 06Z
October 1, 12Z
October 2, 06Z
October 2, 12Z
October 2, 18Z
October 3, 06Z
October 3, 12Z
October 3, 18Z
October 4, 00Z
October 4, 06Z
October 4, 12Z
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