Verification of non-detection of Chantal

I made no tracks of Tropical Storm Chantal. Within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 15 instances, where I missed cyclogenesis.


At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there was 1 miss.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 3 misses.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 3 misses.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 3 misses.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 3 misses.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 3 misses.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 3 misses.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 3 misses.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 3 misses.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 3 misses.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 3 misses.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 3 misses.

The GEFS runs with complete misses were:



August 5, 06Z
August 6, 06Z
August 7, 06Z
August 8, 06Z
August 9, 06Z


August 10, 12Z
August 11, 06Z
August 12, 06Z
August 13, 00Z
August 14, 00Z






August 15, 06Z
August 16, 06Z
August 18, 12Z
August 19, 12Z
August 20, 06Z