Verification of tracks made of Dorian using GEFS mean fields
I made four tracks of Hurricane Dorian. Additionally, within
384
hours of cyclogenesis, there were ten instances, when I missed
cyclogenesis entirely. The amount of detections was inadequate, considering how strong and long-lived tropical cyclone Dorian actually was. In the few tracks, intensity was too low: there was one track showing a Cat 5, but even it had peak intensity in 160-165 mph range.
As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 22, 12Z thru September 9, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the four tracks, formation times ranged between August 22, 06Z and August 30, 00Z. Average was August 26, 15Z and median was August 27, 03Z.
In the 14 cases (4 tracks and 10 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category -0.86 and median was Category -2.
In the four tracks, dissipation times ranged between August 27, 18Z and September 9, 00Z. Average was September 4, 03Z and median was September 5, 09Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 125 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 190 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 235 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 4 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 230 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 5 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 233 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 5 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 380 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 601 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 655 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 654 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 603 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 8 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 677 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 9 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 757 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 10 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 870 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 11 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 666 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 10 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 672 nautical miles.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
August 10, 12Z run:
August 14, 00Z run:
August 22, 12Z run:
August 23, 06Z run:
The complete misses were from the following runs:
August 9, 06Z
August 11, 06Z
August 12, 06Z
August 13, 00Z
August 15, 06Z
August 16, 06Z
August 18, 12Z
August 19, 12Z
August 20, 06Z
August 21, 06Z
As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 22, 12Z thru September 9, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the four tracks, formation times ranged between August 22, 06Z and August 30, 00Z. Average was August 26, 15Z and median was August 27, 03Z.
In the 14 cases (4 tracks and 10 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category -0.86 and median was Category -2.
In the four tracks, dissipation times ranged between August 27, 18Z and September 9, 00Z. Average was September 4, 03Z and median was September 5, 09Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 125 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 190 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 235 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 4 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 230 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 5 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 233 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 5 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 380 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 601 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 655 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 654 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 603 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 8 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 677 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 9 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 757 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 10 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 870 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 11 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 666 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 10 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 672 nautical miles.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
August 10, 12Z run:
August 14, 00Z run:
August 22, 12Z run:
August 23, 06Z run:
The complete misses were from the following runs:
August 9, 06Z
August 11, 06Z
August 12, 06Z
August 13, 00Z
August 15, 06Z
August 16, 06Z
August 18, 12Z
August 19, 12Z
August 20, 06Z
August 21, 06Z
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