Verification of non-detection of Melissa
I made no tracks of Tropical Storm Melissa. Within 384 hours of
cyclogenesis, there were eleven instances, where I missed cyclogenesis.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there was 1 miss.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there was 1 miss.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there was 1 miss.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there was 1 miss.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there was 1 miss.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 3 misses.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 3 misses.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 3 misses.
The GEFS runs with complete misses were:
September 26, 06Z
September 27, 06Z
September 28, 06Z
September 29, 12Z
September 30, 12Z
October 2, 06Z
October 3, 06Z
October 5, 06Z
October 7, 06Z
October 9, 06Z
October 11, 06Z
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there was 1 miss.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there was 1 miss.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there was 1 miss.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there was 1 miss.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there was 1 miss.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 3 misses.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 3 misses.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 3 misses.
The GEFS runs with complete misses were:
September 26, 06Z
September 27, 06Z
September 28, 06Z
September 29, 12Z
September 30, 12Z
October 2, 06Z
October 3, 06Z
October 5, 06Z
October 7, 06Z
October 9, 06Z
October 11, 06Z
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