Verification of a track made of Juliette using GEFS mean fields

I made one track of Hurricane Juliette. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were twelve instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. The sole track was at a short lead time.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 30, 06Z thru September 7, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the track, range/average/median of formation time was September 2, 00Z.

In the thirteen cases (1 track and 12 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 2. Average was Category -1.69 and median was Category -2.

In the track, range/average/median of dissipation time was September 7, 06Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hit, 0 false detections and 1 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 97 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 113 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 112 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 104 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 4 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 141 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 5 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 111 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here is the track once again.

August 31, 00Z run:

The complete misses were from the following runs:

August 16, 06Z
August 18, 12Z
August 19, 12Z
August 20, 06Z
August 21, 06Z

August 22, 12Z
August 23, 06Z
August 25, 06Z
August 26, 12Z
August 27, 06Z

August 28, 06Z
August 29, 00Z