Verification of tracks made of Ivo using GEFS mean fields

November 11, 2019

I made fourteen tracks of Tropical Storm Ivo. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were two instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. The rate of detection was great, but peak intensity was typically way too high.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 16, 12Z thru August 25, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Getting out of the frame of East Pacific tracking map is considered equal to dissipation for the purpose of this verification.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the 14 tracks, formation times ranged between August 16, 18Z and August 23, 12Z. Average was August 20, 19Z and median was August 20, 18Z.

In the sixteen cases (14 tracks and 2 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category 1.75 and median was Category 2.50.

In the 14 tracks, dissipation times ranged between August 22, 18Z and September 11, 12Z. Average was August 28, 07Z and median was August 27, 00Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 85 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 25 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 66 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 3 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 145 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 4 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 6 available position comparisons produce an average error of 215 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 4 hits, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 6 available position comparisons produce an average error of 294 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 3 hits, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 6 available position comparisons produce an average error of 390 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 2 hits, 4 false detections and 1 miss. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 316 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 4 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 242 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 4 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 164 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 4 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 364 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 2 hits, 3 false detections and 3 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 493 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 466 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 216 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 2 hits, 3 false detections and 3 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 432 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 4 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 435 nautical miles.

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