Verification of tracks made of Kiko using GEFS mean fields

November 12, 2019

I made five tracks of Hurricane Kiko. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were five instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. The rate of detection was not especially good, but most of the tracks correctly predicted a major hurricane.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 9, 06Z thru September 25, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the five tracks, formation times ranged between September 11, 12Z and September 16, 12Z. Average was September 13, 04Z and median was September 12, 06Z.

In the ten cases (5 tracks and 5 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category 0.90 and median was Category 0.

In the five tracks, dissipation times ranged between September 18, 18Z and September 24, 00Z. Average was September 21, 04Z and median was September 20, 18Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 93 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 154 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 122 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 107 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 155 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 206 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 262 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 392 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 496 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 545 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 459 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 408 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 333 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 328 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 358 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 410 nautical miles.

Circle coloration scheme