Verification of tracks made of Henriette using GEFS mean fields

I made three tracks of Tropical Storm Henriette. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 13 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Detecting Henriette was rare, but it isn't really discouraging, given how weak and short-lived system it was.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 8, 12Z thru August 13, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Getting out of the frame of East Pacific tracking map is considered equal to dissipation for the purpose of this verification. 

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the three tracks, formation times ranged between August 8, 18Z and August 14, 18Z. Average was August 12, 10Z and median was August 13, 18Z.

In the 16 cases (3 tracks and 13 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 1. Average was Category -1.44 and median was Category -2.

In the three tracks, dissipation times ranged between August 17, 18Z and August 24, 12Z. Average was August 21, 04Z and median was August 21, 06Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
 
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 784 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 692 nautical miles. 


Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

July 25, 06Z run:

August 9, 06Z run:

August 10, 12Z run:

The complete misses were from the following runs:

July 28, 12Z
July 28, 18Z
July 29, 06Z
July 30, 06Z
July 30, 18Z

July 31, 06Z
August 1, 06Z
August 4, 12Z
August 5, 06Z
August 6, 06Z

August 7, 06Z
August 8, 06Z
August 11, 06Z