Verification of tracks made of Priscilla using GEFS mean fields

I made eight tracks of Tropical Storm Priscilla. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were three instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Despite very good rate of detection for this weak and short-lived system, timing was erroneous.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available October 19, 00Z thru October 21, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the eight tracks, formation times ranged between October 20, 06Z and October 23, 06Z. Average was October 21, 11Z and median was October 20, 18Z.

In the eleven cases (8 tracks and 3 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category 0.82 and median was Category 1.

In the eight tracks, dissipation times ranged between October 22, 00Z and October 27, 12Z. Average was October 25, 15Z and median was October 25, 21Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 118 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

October 5, 06Z run:

October 7, 06Z run:

October 9, 06Z run:

October 11, 06Z run:

October 13, 06Z run:

October 14, 12Z run:

October 15, 12Z run:

October 16, 06Z run:

The complete misses were from the following runs:

October 17, 06Z
October 18, 06Z
October 19, 06Z