Verification of tracks made of Sebastien using GEFS mean fields

I made three tracks of Tropical Storm Sebastien. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were nineteen instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. All the detections were at short lead times. Even in those, Sebastien was too short-lived, and position forecasts were also poor.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available November 17, 06Z thru November 25, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the three tracks, formation times ranged between November 19, 00Z and November 20, 00Z. Average was November 19, 10Z and median was November 19, 06Z.

In the 22 cases (3 tracks and 19 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 0. Average was Category -1.73 and median was Category -2.

In the three tracks, dissipation times ranged between November 21, 12Z and November 22, 00Z. Average and median were November 21, 18Z. 

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 96 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 154 nautical miles. 

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 247 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 8 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 9 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 9 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 8 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 8 misses. No available position comparisons.


Circle coloration scheme

 Here are the tracks once again.

November 18, 06Z run:

November 18, 12Z run:

 November 19, 06Z run:

 The complete misses were from the following runs:

November 3, 06Z
November 3, 12Z
November 4, 06Z
November 5, 06Z
November 5, 18Z

November 6, 06Z
November 7, 06Z
November 8, 06Z
November 9, 06Z
November 10, 06Z

November 11, 06Z
November 12, 06Z
November 13, 06Z
November 14, 06Z
November 15, 06Z

November 16, 12Z
November 16, 18Z
November 17, 12Z
November 17, 18Z