Verification of tracks made of Blanca

I made five tracks of Tropical Storm Blanca, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made two more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 20 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available May 28, 18Z thru June 4, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the five tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between May 30, 18Z and June 1, 18Z. Average and median was June 1, 00Z.

In the 26 cases (6 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 20 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and  Category 4. Average was Category -1.12 and median was Category -2.

In the seven tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between June 4, 06Z and June 7, 12Z. Average was June 6, 03Z and median was June 6, 12Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 37 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 74 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 160 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 101 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 69 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 1 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 140 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 162 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 3 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 339 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 4 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 309 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 282 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

May 24, 12Z:

May 24, 18Z:

May 26, 12Z:

May 27, 12Z:

May 29, 12Z:

May 31, 12Z:

June 2, 12Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

May 10, 12Z
May 10, 18Z
May 11, 12Z
May 12, 12Z
May 12, 18Z

May 13, 12Z
May 15, 06Z
May 15, 12Z
May 16, 12Z
May 17, 12Z

May 18, 12Z
May 18, 18Z
May 19, 12Z
May 20, 06Z
May 20, 12Z

May 22, 12Z
May 22, 18Z
May 23, 12Z
May 25, 12Z
May 26, 18Z