Verification of tracks made of Enrique

I made nine tracks of Hurricane Enrique, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made three more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were eighteen instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available June 22, 00Z thru June 30, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the nine tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between June 25, 00Z and June 28, 12Z. Average was June 26, 12Z and median was June 26, 00Z.

In the 29 cases (11 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that Category 1 would remain the peak intensity, and 18 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and  Category 5. Average was Category -0.38 and median was Category -2.

In the twelve tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration), dissipation times ranged between June 28, 12Z and July 2, 06Z. Average was June 30, 23Z and median was July 1, 03Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 41 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 5 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 76 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 5 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 82 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 5 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 154 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 5 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 170 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 267 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 381 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 405 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 436 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 6 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 236 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 8 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 8 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 9 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 8 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 6 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 125 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 6 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 117 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 446 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 640 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 9 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 542 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 9 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 716 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 10 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

June 10, 12Z:

June 11, 06Z:

June 12, 12Z:

June 20, 06Z:

June 21, 12Z:

June 22, 12Z:

June 23, 06Z:

June 23, 18Z:

June 24, 18Z:

June 26, 18Z:

June 28, 12Z:

June 29, 12Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

June 4, 12Z
June 5, 12Z
June 6, 12Z
June 6, 18Z
June 7, 06Z

June 7, 12Z
June 7, 18Z
June 8, 12Z
June 9, 12Z
June 9, 18Z

June 14, 06Z
June 14, 12Z
June 15, 06Z
June 15, 12Z
June 16, 06Z

June 16, 12Z
June 17, 06Z
June 17, 12Z