Verification of tracks made of Larry

October 20, 2021

I made two tracks of Hurricane Larry, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made three more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were three instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 30, 00Z thru September 11, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the two tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between August 30, 12Z and August 31, 12Z. Average and median was August 31, 00Z.

In the seven cases (4 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that Category 3 would remain the peak intensity, and 3 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category 1.57 and median was Category 3.

In the five tracks (made before operationally recognized extratropical transition), dissipation times ranged between September 11, 06Z and September 17, 12Z. Average was September 13, 11Z and median was September 11, 12Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 50 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 70 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 79 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 124 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 3 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 138 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 177 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 322 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 491 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 628 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 697 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 724 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 374 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 523 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 777 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 1014 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 1185 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme