Verification of tracks made of Guillermo

November 21, 2021

I made eleven tracks of Tropical Storm Guillermo, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made three more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were two instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, tropical cyclone report or best track positions are available July 15, 00Z thru July 21, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the eleven tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between July 12, 18Z and July 18, 00Z. Average was July 15, 18Z and median was July 16, 00Z.

In the fourteen cases (12 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 2 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category 2.71 and median was Category 4.

In the fourteen tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration), dissipation times ranged between July 18, 00Z and July 25, 00Z. Average was July 21, 18Z and median was July 21, 15Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 36 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 69 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 122 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 150 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 215 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 3 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 241 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 256 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 3 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 221 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 2 hits, 4 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 223 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 1 hit, 5 false detections and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 348 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 1 hit, 5 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 367 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 525 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 670 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 1 hit, 3 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 739 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 4 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 671 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 458 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 390 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 325 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 516 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 668 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 847 nautical miles.

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