Verification of tracks made of Ignacio

I made ten tracks of Tropical Storm Ignacio, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made two more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were seven instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, tropical cyclone report or best track positions are available July 30, 12Z thru August 4, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the ten tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between July 30, 12Z and August 3, 00Z. Average was August 1, 08Z and median was August 1, 15Z.

In the eighteen cases (11 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 7 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category 0.06 and median was Category 0.

In the twelve tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration), dissipation times ranged between August 2, 00Z and August 15, 18Z. Average was August 6, 03Z and median was August 5, 15Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 97 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 266 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 152 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 3 hits, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 266 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 3 hits, 4 false detections and 0 misses. 6 available position comparisons produce an average error of 294 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 3 hits, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 215 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 3 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 204 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 224 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 1 hit, 3 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 461 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 385 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 99 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 179 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

July 13, 12Z:

July 19, 18Z:

July 22, 18Z:

July 24, 00Z:

July 24, 18Z:

July 25, 12Z:

July 26, 18Z:

July 27, 12Z:

July 27, 18Z:

July 29, 12Z:

August 1, 18Z:

August 3, 12Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

July 12, 18Z
July 15, 12Z
July 17, 12Z
July 20, 12Z
July 21, 12Z

July 23, 06Z
July 30, 12Z