Verification of tracks made of Kevin

I made ten tracks of Tropical Storm Kevin, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made two more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were seven instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 5, 18Z thru August 12, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the ten tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between August 4, 12Z and August 9, 12Z. Average was August 7, 10Z and median was August 7, 18Z.

In the eighteen cases (11 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 7 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category 1.11 and median was Category 2.

In the twelve tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration), dissipation times ranged between August 10, 12Z and August 19, 12Z. Average was August 13, 14Z and median was August 13, 06Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 64 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 53 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 12 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 168 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 220 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 3 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 159 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 3 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 128 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 134 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 3 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 196 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 3 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 257 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 3 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 266 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 3 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 271 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 3 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 238 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 3 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 276 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 3 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 200 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 3 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 303 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 4 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 415 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 5 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 245 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

July 23, 06Z:

July 24, 00Z:

July 26, 18Z:

July 27, 12Z:

July 27, 18Z:

July 29, 12Z:

July 30, 12Z:

August 1, 18Z:

August 3, 12Z:

August 4, 12Z:

August 7, 18Z:

August 11, 18Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

July 17, 12Z
July 19, 18Z
July 20, 12Z
July 21, 12Z
July 22, 18Z

July 24, 18Z
July 25, 12Z