Verification of East Pacific ghost storm tracks of June-July 2021

December 03, 2021

I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in East Pacific (north of equator and east of 140 degrees west) 17 times in June thru July of 2021. Tracks were made of 8 systems.

In the calculations, crossover from Atlantic as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to formation. Crossover to Atlantic is considered equal to dissipation. Exiting the East Pacific tracking map through its left edge is also considered equal to dissipation.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there was 1 false detection.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there was 1 false detection.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there was 1 false detection.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there was 1 false detection.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there was 1 false detection.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 6 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 10 false detections.
At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 9 false detections.
At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 5 false detections.

Circle coloration scheme