Ranking of 2022 Atlantic hurricane season predictions
As I'm writing this, post-season analysis has advanced to the point,
that any changes in seasonal totals (14-8-2) are unlikely. The winner is clear:
Congratulations
Telford Holmes
!!!!!
The combined error is calculated as follows:
sqrt( (E_ns)^2 / 12.1 + (E_hu)^2 / 6.4 + (E_mh)^2 / 2.7 )
sqrt( (E_ns)^2 / 12.1 + (E_hu)^2 / 6.4 + (E_mh)^2 / 2.7 )
where E_ns is error in number of nameable storms,
E_hu is error in number of hurricanes and
E_mh is error in number of of major hurricanes.
The following has the format of
ranking. / predicted named storms / predicted hurricanes / predicted major hurricanes / combined error / and Disqus/Twitter handle at time of giving prediction (possible Twitter account name in parentheses)
1. / 14 / 8 / 3 / 0.60858 / Telford Holmes
2. / 14 / 7 / 3 / 0.72569 / Rommel Gomez Vera (@habboerwin98)
3. / 16 / 8 / 3 / 0.83723 / elioe (@elioeFIN)
4. / 15 / 6 / 2 / 0.84122 / Tie Luno (@LunoRawke)
5. / 15.5 / 7 / 3 / 0.84414 / Miguel Russe Gonzales #ForaBolsonaro (@miguelweather1)
6. / 11 / 9 / 2 / 0.94871 / Tim Bates (@batestimbo)
7. / 16 / 6 / 3 / 1.15150 / Into the Tropics (@TropicsInto)
8. / 18 / 9 / 2 / 1.21596 / MissMolly'sMom
9. / 17.5 / 7 / 3 / 1.24057 / Tablo (@TabloLs)
10. / 18 / 8 / 3 / 1.30103 / Harold Carr (@HaroldCarr10)
10. / 18 / 8 / 3 / 1.30103 / Jra. (@JraAlan)
12. / 16 / 9 / 4 / 1.40296 / BaltimoreBrian
13. / 17 / 9 / 4 / 1.54322 / Alan's Tropical Severe Weather Central (@AlanSevere)
14. / 18 / 8 / 4 / 1.67445 / The moon (@Francesco170402)
15. / 13 / 4 / 3 / 1.71843 / LovePeaceHappinezz (@Love_Happinezz)
16. / 18 / 9 / 4 / 1.72048 / Dan Harkins C-137 (@HurricaneSats)
16. / 18 / 7 / 4 / 1.72048 / Daytona Beach Watcher
18. / 19 / 7 / 3.5 / 1.74806 / ark! (@plutoenjoyer)
19. / 10 / 5 / 1 / 1.76038 / David Shaw (@DavidSh90961360)
20. / 12 / 4 / 1 / 1.78912 / Patricia Bronson (@PatriciaBronso7)
21. / 19 / 7 / 4 / 1.92454 / The King (@JimKingWX)
21. / 19 / 9 / 4 / 1.92454 / Freedom Elon is the best Elon Musk (@Corneiten)
21. / 19 / 9 / 4 / 1.92454 / Michael Anderson (@MAnderson003)
24. / 18 / 4 / 1 / 2.04760 / Doctor ennykinpa (@ennykinpa)
25. / 20 / 8 / 4 / 2.11109 / Joseph Sturch
26. / 20 / 7 / 4 / 2.14778 / Remko Kampen (@KampenRemko)
26. / 20 / 9 / 4 / 2.14778 / Giovany (@AzureGearsts)
28. / 18 / 9 / 5 / 2.19360 / Danny Alvarez (@lildanny0504)
29. / 19 / 9 / 5 / 2.35705 / Anthony (@AnthonyCyclone)
30. / 21 / 9 / 4 / 2.38481 / Jack Raclaw (@JackRaclaw)
31. / 22 / 9 / 3 / 2.41161 / Sadie La Rue
32. / 19 / 10 / 5 / 2.45448 / McManus_Wx (@MhcTracking)
33. / 22 / 8 / 4 / 2.60206 / TornadoFan
34. / 22 / 9 / 4 / 2.63192 / Seattleite
35. / 18 / 8 / 6 / 2.69226 / Athena
36. / 22 / 6 / 4 / 2.71951 / Kiki (@KikiThinksAlot1)
37. / 21 / 10 / 5 / 2.82983 / South Caroline RDH (@RDHMUSC)
38. / 21 / 11 / 5 / 2.96465 / floridacane (@FloridaCane100)
39. / 21 / 12 / 5 / 3.14371 / Native Son
40. / 21 / 10 / 6 / 3.25584 / Mikey Zimmerman (@zimmerman_mikey)
41. / 24 / 12 / 6 / 4.08539 / Sue Kaufman (@SuzkMI)
42. / 26 / 13 / 5 / 4.37498 / WE made it, thru...Jax Stephen (@StephenJaxM)
43. / 31 / 11 / 5 / 5.35013 / DC1958 (@DC19583)
44. / 28 / 14 / 7 / 5.57518 / Westhawk (@Westhawk12)
45. / 35 / 29 / 9 / 11.11309 / Fuck Elon Musk (@JosMuleBarn1)
ranking. / predicted named storms / predicted hurricanes / predicted major hurricanes / combined error / and Disqus/Twitter handle at time of giving prediction (possible Twitter account name in parentheses)
1. / 14 / 8 / 3 / 0.60858 / Telford Holmes
2. / 14 / 7 / 3 / 0.72569 / Rommel Gomez Vera (@habboerwin98)
3. / 16 / 8 / 3 / 0.83723 / elioe (@elioeFIN)
4. / 15 / 6 / 2 / 0.84122 / Tie Luno (@LunoRawke)
5. / 15.5 / 7 / 3 / 0.84414 / Miguel Russe Gonzales #ForaBolsonaro (@miguelweather1)
6. / 11 / 9 / 2 / 0.94871 / Tim Bates (@batestimbo)
7. / 16 / 6 / 3 / 1.15150 / Into the Tropics (@TropicsInto)
8. / 18 / 9 / 2 / 1.21596 / MissMolly'sMom
9. / 17.5 / 7 / 3 / 1.24057 / Tablo (@TabloLs)
10. / 18 / 8 / 3 / 1.30103 / Harold Carr (@HaroldCarr10)
10. / 18 / 8 / 3 / 1.30103 / Jra. (@JraAlan)
12. / 16 / 9 / 4 / 1.40296 / BaltimoreBrian
13. / 17 / 9 / 4 / 1.54322 / Alan's Tropical Severe Weather Central (@AlanSevere)
14. / 18 / 8 / 4 / 1.67445 / The moon (@Francesco170402)
15. / 13 / 4 / 3 / 1.71843 / LovePeaceHappinezz (@Love_Happinezz)
16. / 18 / 9 / 4 / 1.72048 / Dan Harkins C-137 (@HurricaneSats)
16. / 18 / 7 / 4 / 1.72048 / Daytona Beach Watcher
18. / 19 / 7 / 3.5 / 1.74806 / ark! (@plutoenjoyer)
19. / 10 / 5 / 1 / 1.76038 / David Shaw (@DavidSh90961360)
20. / 12 / 4 / 1 / 1.78912 / Patricia Bronson (@PatriciaBronso7)
21. / 19 / 7 / 4 / 1.92454 / The King (@JimKingWX)
21. / 19 / 9 / 4 / 1.92454 / Freedom Elon is the best Elon Musk (@Corneiten)
21. / 19 / 9 / 4 / 1.92454 / Michael Anderson (@MAnderson003)
24. / 18 / 4 / 1 / 2.04760 / Doctor ennykinpa (@ennykinpa)
25. / 20 / 8 / 4 / 2.11109 / Joseph Sturch
26. / 20 / 7 / 4 / 2.14778 / Remko Kampen (@KampenRemko)
26. / 20 / 9 / 4 / 2.14778 / Giovany (@AzureGearsts)
28. / 18 / 9 / 5 / 2.19360 / Danny Alvarez (@lildanny0504)
29. / 19 / 9 / 5 / 2.35705 / Anthony (@AnthonyCyclone)
30. / 21 / 9 / 4 / 2.38481 / Jack Raclaw (@JackRaclaw)
31. / 22 / 9 / 3 / 2.41161 / Sadie La Rue
32. / 19 / 10 / 5 / 2.45448 / McManus_Wx (@MhcTracking)
33. / 22 / 8 / 4 / 2.60206 / TornadoFan
34. / 22 / 9 / 4 / 2.63192 / Seattleite
35. / 18 / 8 / 6 / 2.69226 / Athena
36. / 22 / 6 / 4 / 2.71951 / Kiki (@KikiThinksAlot1)
37. / 21 / 10 / 5 / 2.82983 / South Caroline RDH (@RDHMUSC)
38. / 21 / 11 / 5 / 2.96465 / floridacane (@FloridaCane100)
39. / 21 / 12 / 5 / 3.14371 / Native Son
40. / 21 / 10 / 6 / 3.25584 / Mikey Zimmerman (@zimmerman_mikey)
41. / 24 / 12 / 6 / 4.08539 / Sue Kaufman (@SuzkMI)
42. / 26 / 13 / 5 / 4.37498 / WE made it, thru...Jax Stephen (@StephenJaxM)
43. / 31 / 11 / 5 / 5.35013 / DC1958 (@DC19583)
44. / 28 / 14 / 7 / 5.57518 / Westhawk (@Westhawk12)
45. / 35 / 29 / 9 / 11.11309 / Fuck Elon Musk (@JosMuleBarn1)
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