Verification of tracks made of Oscar using GEFS mean fields
I made seven tracks of Hurricane Oscar.
Additionally, within 384
hours of cyclogenesis, there were 19 instances, when I missed
cyclogenesis entirely. Formation and dissipation times were predicted fairly well. Initially, though, the timing was somewhat off, and location of cyclogenesis was hugely off.
As of this analysis, best track positions are available October 23, 00Z thru October 31, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the seven tracks, formation times ranged between October 22, 12Z and October 27, 06Z. Average was October 25, 07Z and median was October 26, 00Z.
In the 26 cases (7 tracks and 19 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 3. Average was Category -1.27 and median was Category -2.
In the seven tracks, dissipation times ranged between October 28, 12Z and November 2, 18Z. Average was October 31, 09Z and median was October 31, 18Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 75 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hits, 1 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 26 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 174 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 331 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 398 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 1 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 464 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 470 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 524 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 1 hits, 1 false detections and 4 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 922 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 7 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 10 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 917 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 13 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 954 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 15 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 1175 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 14 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1238 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 1 hits, 1 false detections and 11 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1359 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 1 hits, 1 false detections and 8 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1315 nautical miles.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
October 9, 06Z run:
October 12, 06Z run:
October 21, 06Z run:
October 22, 06Z run:
October 23, 06Z run:
October 24, 06Z run:
October 25, 06Z run:
The complete misses were from following runs:
October 11, 06Z
October 13, 06Z
October 14, 06Z
October 14, 12Z
October 14, 18Z
October 15, 00Z
October 15, 06Z
October 15, 12Z
October 15, 18Z
October 16, 00Z
October 16, 06Z
October 16, 12Z
October 16, 18Z
October 17, 06Z
October 17, 12Z
October 17, 18Z
October 18, 06Z
October 19, 06Z
October 20, 06Z
As of this analysis, best track positions are available October 23, 00Z thru October 31, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the seven tracks, formation times ranged between October 22, 12Z and October 27, 06Z. Average was October 25, 07Z and median was October 26, 00Z.
In the 26 cases (7 tracks and 19 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 3. Average was Category -1.27 and median was Category -2.
In the seven tracks, dissipation times ranged between October 28, 12Z and November 2, 18Z. Average was October 31, 09Z and median was October 31, 18Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 75 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hits, 1 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 26 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 174 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 331 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 398 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 1 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 464 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 470 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 524 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 1 hits, 1 false detections and 4 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 922 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 7 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 10 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 917 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 13 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 954 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 15 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 1175 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 14 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1238 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 1 hits, 1 false detections and 11 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1359 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 1 hits, 1 false detections and 8 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1315 nautical miles.
Circle coloration scheme
October 9, 06Z run:
The complete misses were from following runs:
October 11, 06Z
October 13, 06Z
October 14, 06Z
October 14, 12Z
October 14, 18Z
October 15, 00Z
October 15, 06Z
October 15, 12Z
October 15, 18Z
October 16, 00Z
October 16, 06Z
October 16, 12Z
October 16, 18Z
October 17, 06Z
October 17, 12Z
October 17, 18Z
October 18, 06Z
October 19, 06Z
October 20, 06Z
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