Verification of a track made of Andrea using GEFS mean fields

I made one track of Subtropical Storm Andrea. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 46 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. The lone track didn't have concurrent duration as a tropical cyclone with actual Andrea.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available May 18, 18Z thru May 21, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. 

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the track, range, average and median of formation time was May 24, 18Z.

In the 47 cases (1 track and 46 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 0. Average was Category -1.96 and median was Category -2.

In the track, range, average and median of dissipation time was May 27, 18Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here is the track once again.

May 17, 12Z run: 

The complete misses were from following runs:

May 4, 18Z

May 5, 00Z

May 5, 06Z

May 5, 12Z

May 5, 18Z

May 6, 00Z

May 6, 06Z

May 6, 12Z

May 6, 18Z

May 7, 00Z

May 7, 06Z

May 7, 12Z

May 7, 18Z

May 8, 06Z

May 8, 12Z

May 8, 18Z

May 9, 06Z

May 9, 12Z

May 9, 18Z

May 10, 06Z

May 10, 12Z

May 11, 06Z

May 11, 12Z

May 12, 06Z

May 12, 12Z

May 12, 18Z

May 13, 06Z

May 13, 12Z

May 13, 18Z

May 14, 06Z

May 14, 12Z

May 14, 18Z

May 15, 06Z

May 15, 12Z

May 15, 18Z

May 16, 06Z

May 16, 12Z

May 16, 18Z

May 17, 06Z

May 17, 18Z

May 18, 06Z

May 19, 06Z

May 19, 12Z

May 19, 18Z

May 20, 06Z

May 20, 12Z