Verification of tracks made of Mario using GEFS mean fields

I made three tracks of Tropical Storm Mario. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were seven instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. The rate of detection was rather poor, all detections happening at a short lead time. Position errors also became quickly poor with increasing lead time. Neither of these are really surprising, given the difficulty of predicting the interactions between Mario and the stronger Lorena nearby, or even distinguishing two close systems from each other.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 15, 06Z thru September 23, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the three tracks, formation times ranged between September 16, 00Z and September 17, 12Z. Average was September 16, 20Z and median was September 17, 00Z.

In the ten cases (3 tracks and 7 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 4. Average was Category -0.50 and median was Category -2.

In the three tracks, dissipation times ranged between September 25, 06Z and October 7, 12Z. Average was October 2, 02Z and median was October 3, 12Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 88 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 76 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 144 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 250 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 365 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 460 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 508 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 587 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 879 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

September 13, 00Z run:

September 14, 06Z run:

September 16, 06Z run:

The complete misses were from the following runs:

September 2, 00Z
September 4, 00Z
September 6, 06Z
September 7, 06Z
September 8, 06Z

September 10, 06Z
September 11, 06Z