Verification of Atlantic ghost storm tracks of June-July 2020

I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in Atlantic (north of equator and west of Greenwich) 48 times in June thru July of 2020. Tracks were made of 18 systems.

In the calculations, crossover into East Pacific as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to dissipation.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there was 1 false detection.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there was 1 false detection.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 1 false detection.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 10 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 12 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 10 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 10 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 11 false detections.
At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 12 false detections.
At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 12 false detections.
At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 12 false detections.
At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 9 false detections.

Ghost storm L#20

This extremely long-range system moved slowly west. Eventually the signal crossed wholly into East Pacific (as E#31 and E#36) , while continuing to delay in timing. Those designations, and EPac part of L#20, are identified as Cristina. These tracks began in May.

June 5, 12Z:


June 6, 12Z:


June 9, 12Z:


June 9, 18Z:


June 10, 12Z:


June 10, 18Z:


June 16, 12Z:

Ghost storm L#21

This was related to Cristobal in the sense, that this was another TC expected to come from the same CAG setup. However, this is distinct. These tracks began in May.

June 1, 12Z:

Ghost storm L#25

These tracks are best identifiable with the tropical wave, which is south of Cuba in following synoptic chart. These tracks began in May.


June 2, 12Z:


June 4, 06Z:


System L#26

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Cristobal (like L#23).
 

Ghost storm L#27

This was actually an extratropical cyclone near the Eastern Azores in the following synoptic chart.


June 1, 12Z:


June 2, 12Z:



Ghost storm L#28

This is best identifiable with a tropical wave, located south of Cuba in the following synoptic chart.


June 1, 12Z:


June 7, 12Z:


June 7, 18Z:


June 8, 18Z:


June 9, 18Z:

Ghost storm L#29

This is best identifiable with a tropical wave, just west of 40W in the following synoptic chart.


June 6, 12Z:


June 10, 18Z:

Ghost storm L#30

This isn't identifiable with anything.

June 6, 12Z:

Ghost storm L#31

These are best identifiable with a tropical wave, near 35W in the following synoptic chart.


June 7, 12Z:


June 10, 12Z:

Ghost storm L#32

This lone track is not identifiable due to long lead time.

June 15, 12Z:


Ghost storm L#33

These are best identifiable with a tropical wave, located just east of Nicaragua in the following synoptic chart.


June 15, 18Z:


June 16, 12Z:


June 17, 06Z:


June 17, 18Z:


June 21, 06Z:


June 22, 06Z:


June 23, 12Z:


June 24, 06Z:


June 25, 06Z:


System L#34

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Fay.

Ghost storm L#35


This is best identifiable with a trough, which  is east of Florida in the following synoptic chart.


June 23, 12Z:


June 24, 06Z:


June 26, 06Z:


June 29, 12Z:


July 8, 06Z:



System L#36

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Gonzalo.
 

System L#37

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was (also) Fay (just like L#34).
 

 System L#38

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Hanna.
 

System L#39

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Isaias.

System L#40

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was (also) Isaias.

System L#41

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was (also) Hanna.

System L#42

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Josephine.

Ghost storm L#43

This isn't really identifiable with anything real.

July 20, 06Z:


Ghost storm L#44

This isn't identifiable with anything.

July 23, 12Z:

System L#45

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was 10L.
 

System L#46 

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Laura.

Ghost storm L#47

This broad signal eventually became Invest 94L, which didn't develop. These tracks continued in August.


July 26, 12Z:


July 29, 12Z:

Ghost storm L#48

This is best identifiable with the trough, which is located near 30N 40W in the following synoptic chart. These tracks continued in August.


July 27, 12Z:


July 28, 06Z:


July 29, 12Z:


July 31, 06Z:

Ghost storm L#49

These aren't identifiable.

July 28, 06Z:


July 29, 12Z:

Ghost storm L#50

This lone track is best identifiable with the trough, which extends from 20N to 30N near 50W in the following synoptic chart.


July 29, 12Z:


System L#51

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Marco.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Advisory list

Predictions for year 2025 - mainly for entertainment purposes

2025 hurricane season predictions