Verification of tracks made of Felicia

I made seven tracks of Hurricane Felicia, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made four more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were eight instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, tropical cyclone report or best track positions are available July 11, 18Z thru July 22, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the seven tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between July 11, 06Z and July 15, 12Z. Average was July 13, 15Z and median was July 14, 12Z.

In the sixteen cases (8 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that Category 4 would remain the peak intensity, and 8 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category 0.19 and median was Category -1.

In the eleven tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration), dissipation times ranged between July 17, 18Z and July 21, 18Z. Average was July 19, 15Z and median was July 19, 12Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 38 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 65 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 4 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 142 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 4 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. 7 available position comparisons produce an average error of 230 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 3 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 278 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 2 hits, 3 false detections and 3 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 320 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 3 hits, 1 false detection and 3 miss. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 375 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 3 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 455 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 670 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 737 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 443 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 429 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 289 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 253 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

July 4, 12Z:

July 5, 18Z:

July 7, 18Z:

July 9, 12Z:

July 11, 12Z:

July 12, 18Z:

July 13, 12Z:

July 15, 12Z:

July 17, 12Z:

July 19, 18Z:

July 20, 12Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

June 23, 06Z
June 23, 18Z
June 24, 18Z
June 26, 18Z
June 28, 12Z

June 29, 12Z
June 30, 12Z
July 10, 18Z