elioe's tracks

This is a repost from August 2017 I made 12 tracks about Hurricane Gert. Two of those tracks were accidentally made from the same run. For this analysis, I chose the more erroneous one, and discarded the other. Additionally, there was a run, where I missed the system entirely. Intensity forecast was pretty good, but position errors became huge, as Gert recurved. My analysis begins at August 5, 06Z, which is the earliest time, at which some of my tracks had cyclogenesis. Position analysis ends at August 17, 18Z, which is the last best track entry. Intensity analysis continues until August 21, 06Z, which is the last time, at which one of my tracks has a tropical cyclone. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical storms as "Category 0", tropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical cyclone as "Category ...

Totals for 2018 Atlantic hurricane season: 21 TDs/STDs, 20 TSs/STSs, 11 hurricanes, 5 major   Totals for 2018 Pacific hurricane season: 15 TDs, 13 TSs, 7 hurricanes, 2 major   Totals for 2018 Pacific typhoon season: 29 TSs, 15 typhoons, 6 super typhoons ( JTWC count, 1-min sustained winds )   Totals for 2018 North Indian Ocean cyclone season: 4 cyclones of TS intensity, no cyclones of hurricane intensity ( JTWC count, 1-min sustained winds )   Arctic sea ice minimum: 3.20 million km² Individual storms of 2018 Atlantic hurricane season Circle coloration scheme ALBERTO: BERYL: CHRIS: DEBBY: ERNESTO: FLORENCE: SEVEN: GORDON: HELENE: ISAAC: JOYCE: KIRK: LESLIE: MICHAEL: NADINE: OSCAR: PATTY: RAFAEL: SARA: TONY: VALERIE: ...

This is a repost from late 2017 I made five tracks about Hurricane Harvey. Additionally, there were seven runs, where I missed the system entirely. My predicted intensity was consistently way too low. In my tracks, Harvey progressed west pretty near the actual track of the hurricane, but differences in timing caused position errors to be enormous. I generally projected Harvey to be a short-lived cyclone in the West Caribbean. It is pretty comical, because in reality, Harvey had degenerated, and not yet regenerated, when in that region. None of my tracks began before the first best track entry as TC at August 17, 18Z. None of my tracks continued after the last best track entry as TC at August 31, 00Z. Therefore, these times are the limits to my analysis. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical storms as "Category 0", tropical depression...

This is a repost from late 2017   Above: my predictions for September 10, 12Z, compared to actual position. I made 10 tracks about Hurricane Irma. There were no cases, where I missed cyclogenesis. Intensity forecast was pretty good, generally much better than climatology. Position forecast was poor. Mostly I predicted cyclogenesis E of Cape Verde Islands, at excessively high latitudes, and almost immediately after the wave reached ocean. I predicted generally a NW motion into subtropics in Eastern Atlantic, possibly even followed by motion to the east towards Canary Islands. My intensity analysis begins at August 25, 00Z, which is the earliest time, at which some of my tracks had cyclogenesis. Position analysis begins at first time with best track data, August 27, 18Z. Position analysis ends at last time with best track data, September 12, 00Z. Intensity analysis ends at September 25, 12Z, after which none of my tracks continued. Since I ...

This is a repost from early 2018 I made four tracks about Hurricane Jose. Additionally, there were six runs, where I missed the system entirely. My predicted intensity was generally too low. The longevity of Jose was completely missed. None of my tracks began before the first best track entry as TC at September 5, 12Z. None of my tracks continued after the last best track entry as TC at September 21, 18Z. Therefore, these times are the limits to my analysis. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical storms as "Category 0", tropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical cyclone as "Category -2". I compare intensities only in cases, when either the best track data or my track has a tropical cyclone, or both. In other words, I leave the comparison out of calculations, if both best track data and my t...