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Showing posts from December, 2021

Verification of East Pacific ghost storm tracks of August-October 2021

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 I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in East Pacific (north of equator and east of 140 degrees west) 29 times in August thru October of 2021. Additionally, North Atlantic cyclogenesis lead to crossover into East Pacific 1 time. Tracks were made of 14 systems. In the calculations, crossover from Atlantic as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to formation. Exiting the East Pacific tracking map through its left edge is considered equal to dissipation. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 2 false detections. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there was 1 false detection. At the lead time of 3 days ( 72 hours), there was 1 false detection. At the lead time of 4 days ( 96 hours), there were 3 false detections. At the lead time of 5 days ( 120 hours), there were 5 false detections. At the lead time of 6 days ( 144 hours), there were 5 false detections. At the lead time of 7 days ( 168 hours), there were 6 false detections.

Verification of Atlantic ghost storm tracks of August-October 2021

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I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in Atlantic (north of equator and west of Greenwich) 29 times in August thru October of 2021. Tracks were made of 18 systems. In the calculations, crossover into East Pacific as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to dissipation. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 2 false detections. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there were 3 false detections. At the lead time of 3 days ( 72 hours), there were 3 false detections. At the lead time of 4 days ( 96 hours), there were 3 false detections. At the lead time of 5 days ( 120 hours), there were 2 false detections. At the lead time of 6 days ( 144 hours), there were 3 false detections. At the lead time of 7 days ( 168 hours), there were 4 false detections. At the lead time of 8 days ( 192 hours), there were 5 false detections. At the lead time of 9 days ( 216 hours), there were 6 false detections. At the lead time of 10 days ( 240 h