elioe's tracks

I made 13 tracks of Hurricane Chris. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 36 instances, where I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Originally, timing of cyclogenesis was way too early. Later, it happened often, that the tracks didn't show movement to anywhere near U.S. East Coast. As of this analysis, best track positions are available July 4, 12Z thru July 12, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the 13 tracks, formation times ranged between June 27, 18Z and July 5, 18Z. Average was June 30, 21Z and median was July 1, 00Z. In the 49 cases (13 tracks and 36 c

I made no tracks of Hurricane Beryl. Within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 46 instances, where I missed cyclogenesis. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 5 misses. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there were 9 misses. At the lead time of 3 days ( 72 hours), there were 12 misses. At the lead time of 4 days ( 96 hours), there were 12  misses. At the lead time of 5 days ( 120 hours), there were 9 misses. At the lead time of 6 days ( 144 hours), there were 9 misses. At the lead time of 7 days ( 168 hours), there were 10 misses. At the lead time of 8 days ( 192 hours), there were 13 misses. At the lead time of 9 days ( 216 hours), there were 16 misses. At the lead time of 10 days ( 240 hours), there were 16 misses. At the lead time of 11 days ( 264 hours), there were 17 misses. At the lead time of 12 days ( 288 hours), there were 14 misses. At the lead time of 13 days ( 312 hours), there were 12 misses. At the

I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in Atlantic 39 times in September and October 2018. Tracks were made of 14 systems. At the lead time of 1 days ( 24 hours), there were 2 false detections. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there were 4 false detections. At the lead time of 3 days ( 72 hours), there were 2 false detections. At the lead time of 4 days ( 96 hours), there were 2 false detections. At the lead time of 5 days ( 120 hours), there were 2 false detections. At the lead time of 6 days ( 144 hours), there were 1 false detections. At the lead time of 7 days ( 168 hours), there were 4 false detections. At the lead time of 8 days ( 192 hours), there were 3 false detections. At the lead time of 9 days ( 216 hours), there were 7 false detections. At the lead time of 10 days ( 240 hours), there were 10 false detections. At the lead time of 11 days ( 264 hours), there were 13 false detections. At the lead time of 12 days (