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Showing posts from June, 2021

Verification of tracks made of Dolores

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I made 21 tracks of Tropical Storm Dolores, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made no more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were three instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available June 16, 06Z thru June 20, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the 21 tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between June 15, 00Z and June 21, 00Z. Average and median was June 17, 12Z. In the 24 cases (21 tracks, before the tracks and data ag

Verification of tracks made of Carlos

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I made seven tracks of Tropical Storm Carlos, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made five more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 17 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available June 3, 18Z thru June 16, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the seven tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between June 6, 00Z and June 14, 00Z. Average was June 9, 00Z and median was June 7, 12Z. In the 24 cases (7 tracks, before the t

Verification of tracks made of Claudette

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I made 21 tracks of Tropical Storm Claudette, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made two more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were five instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available June 11, 18Z thru June 22, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.  In the calculations, crossover to East Pacific is considered equal to dissipation. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the 21 tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between June 7, 12Z and June 20, 00Z. Average wa