Verification of tracks made of Carlos

I made seven tracks of Tropical Storm Carlos, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made five more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 17 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available June 3, 18Z thru June 16, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the seven tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between June 6, 00Z and June 14, 00Z. Average was June 9, 00Z and median was June 7, 12Z.

In the 24 cases (7 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 17 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and  Category 3. Average was Category -1.21 and median was Category -2.

In the 12 tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between June 10, 00Z and June 17, 06Z. Average was June 14, 18Z and median was June 16, 00Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 4 hits, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 7 available position comparisons produce an average error of 79 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 2 hits, 4 false detections and 1 miss. 6 available position comparisons produce an average error of 181 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 hits, 4 false detections and 2 misses. 6 available position comparisons produce an average error of 265 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 4 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 438 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 6 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 210 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 7 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 313 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 6 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 364 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 6 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 418 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 4 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 446 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 451 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 72 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 35 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

June 2, 12Z:

June 4, 12Z:

June 5, 12Z:

June 6, 12Z:

June 6, 18Z:

June 11, 06Z:

June 12, 12Z:

June 14, 06Z:

June 14, 12Z:

June 15, 06Z:

June 15, 12Z:

June 16, 06Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

May 22, 18Z
May 23, 12Z
May 24, 12Z
May 24, 18Z
May 25, 12Z

May 26, 12Z
May 26, 18Z
May 27, 12Z
May 29, 12Z
May 31, 12Z

June 7, 06Z
June 7, 12Z
June 7, 18Z
June 8, 12Z
June 9, 12Z

June 9, 18Z
June 10, 12Z