Total verification of tracks done in 2018
These tracks, or lack of those, have been earlier discussed in separate blog entries system-wise or time-wise: Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce TD 11 Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Ghost storms Jan-Mar Ghost storms Apr-May Ghost storms Jun Ghost storms Jul Ghost storms Aug Ghost storms Sep-Oct Ghost storms Nov December had no ghost storm tracks. Xenophon Since this total verification includes only North Atlantic systems, Xenophon is omitted. I made 285 tracks of storms, that actually formed. I made 457 tracks of ghost storms. I missed 257 times cyclogenesis, which actually happened within 384 hours. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 7 hits, 18 false detections and 13 misses. 17 available position comparisons produce an average error of 96 nautical miles. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there were 19 hits, 34 false detections and 30 misses. 29 available position comparis