Verification of tracks made of Dolores

June 30, 2021

I made 21 tracks of Tropical Storm Dolores, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made no more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were three instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available June 16, 06Z thru June 20, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the 21 tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between June 15, 00Z and June 21, 00Z. Average and median was June 17, 12Z.

In the 24 cases (21 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 3 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category 1.33 and median was Category 0.5.

In the 21 tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between June 19, 00Z and June 24, 18Z. Average was June 21, 21Z and median was June 22, 12Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 93 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 78 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 124 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 173 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 241 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 6 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 363 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 1 hit, 6 false detections and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 230 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 1 hit, 3 false detections and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 247 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 1 hit, 5 false detections and 2 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 202 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 1 hits, 4 false detections and 2 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 177 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 4 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 6 available position comparisons produce an average error of 163 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 5 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 195 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 2 hits, 4 false detections and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 228 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 5 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 4 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 1 hit, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 584 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 1 hit, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 492 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 1 hit, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 478 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 255 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparisons produce an average error of 268 nautical miles.

Circle coloration scheme